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Evolution of predator dispersal in relation to spatio-temporal prey dynamics: how not to get stuck in the wrong place!

Travis JM, Palmer SC, Coyne S, Millon A, Lambin X - PLoS ONE (2013)

Bottom Line: We additionally demonstrate that the cost of dispersal can vary substantially across space and time.Perhaps as a consequence of current environmental change, many key prey species are currently exhibiting major shifts in their spatio-temporal dynamics.By exploring similar shifts in silico, we predict that predator populations will be most vulnerable when prey dynamics shift from stable to complex.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK. justin.travis@abdn.ac.uk

ABSTRACT
The eco-evolutionary dynamics of dispersal are recognised as key in determining the responses of populations to environmental changes. Here, by developing a novel modelling approach, we show that predators are likely to have evolved to emigrate more often and become more selective over their destination patch when their prey species exhibit spatio-temporally complex dynamics. We additionally demonstrate that the cost of dispersal can vary substantially across space and time. Perhaps as a consequence of current environmental change, many key prey species are currently exhibiting major shifts in their spatio-temporal dynamics. By exploring similar shifts in silico, we predict that predator populations will be most vulnerable when prey dynamics shift from stable to complex. The more sophisticated dispersal rules, and greater variance therein, that evolve under complex dynamics will enable persistence across a broader range of prey dynamics than the rules which evolve under relatively stable prey conditions.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Variability in emigration probability and transplant success.Predator population size following transplant experiments between stable and chaotic prey landscapes involving predators with average-only emigration propensity or predators with their evolved distribution of emigration probabilities. In (A) the results are for the model where only emigration probability evolves. In (B) the results are for the more complex dispersal strategy where emigration rate evolves along with a stopping rule based on the ratio of prey to predators. These results are for the same parameter values as used in Fig. 5.
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pone-0054453-g006: Variability in emigration probability and transplant success.Predator population size following transplant experiments between stable and chaotic prey landscapes involving predators with average-only emigration propensity or predators with their evolved distribution of emigration probabilities. In (A) the results are for the model where only emigration probability evolves. In (B) the results are for the more complex dispersal strategy where emigration rate evolves along with a stopping rule based on the ratio of prey to predators. These results are for the same parameter values as used in Fig. 5.

Mentions: When a predator experienced an abrupt change in the underlying prey dynamics, the predator’s population size could be substantially compromised by a mismatch between the dispersal strategy which was evolved under one prey condition and that which would serve it best under the new conditions (Figs. 5 and 6). While predator transplanted population size was typically somewhat reduced compared to the native one, regardless of the prey conditions from which and to which individuals were moved, the most substantial negative impacts were experienced by populations moving from stable to unstable (either cyclic or chaotic) conditions. A population experiencing a transition from a chaotic prey environment to a stable environment could suffer, due to its maladapted (too high) dispersal strategy, roughly a 10% reduction in population size relative to a population which evolved under stable prey conditions, and this was true both when emigration probability alone evolved (Fig. 6A) and when the emigration probability and stopping rules evolved jointly (Fig. 6B). However, the reverse transition in prey dynamics, from stable to chaotic conditions, resulted in an even greater population decline (>70% for the joint evolution of emigration probability and stopping rule) relative to when it was well adapted to the unstable prey dynamics. Similar relative reductions resulted for a transition from stable to cyclic conditions. Note in Fig. 6 the substantially higher predator population densities obtained in complex prey landscapes by predator populations that used multiple steps (Fig 6B) than by those only moving to a nearest neighbour cell (Fig 6A). Active searching for prey resources resulted in much larger predator populations.


Evolution of predator dispersal in relation to spatio-temporal prey dynamics: how not to get stuck in the wrong place!

Travis JM, Palmer SC, Coyne S, Millon A, Lambin X - PLoS ONE (2013)

Variability in emigration probability and transplant success.Predator population size following transplant experiments between stable and chaotic prey landscapes involving predators with average-only emigration propensity or predators with their evolved distribution of emigration probabilities. In (A) the results are for the model where only emigration probability evolves. In (B) the results are for the more complex dispersal strategy where emigration rate evolves along with a stopping rule based on the ratio of prey to predators. These results are for the same parameter values as used in Fig. 5.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3569443&req=5

pone-0054453-g006: Variability in emigration probability and transplant success.Predator population size following transplant experiments between stable and chaotic prey landscapes involving predators with average-only emigration propensity or predators with their evolved distribution of emigration probabilities. In (A) the results are for the model where only emigration probability evolves. In (B) the results are for the more complex dispersal strategy where emigration rate evolves along with a stopping rule based on the ratio of prey to predators. These results are for the same parameter values as used in Fig. 5.
Mentions: When a predator experienced an abrupt change in the underlying prey dynamics, the predator’s population size could be substantially compromised by a mismatch between the dispersal strategy which was evolved under one prey condition and that which would serve it best under the new conditions (Figs. 5 and 6). While predator transplanted population size was typically somewhat reduced compared to the native one, regardless of the prey conditions from which and to which individuals were moved, the most substantial negative impacts were experienced by populations moving from stable to unstable (either cyclic or chaotic) conditions. A population experiencing a transition from a chaotic prey environment to a stable environment could suffer, due to its maladapted (too high) dispersal strategy, roughly a 10% reduction in population size relative to a population which evolved under stable prey conditions, and this was true both when emigration probability alone evolved (Fig. 6A) and when the emigration probability and stopping rules evolved jointly (Fig. 6B). However, the reverse transition in prey dynamics, from stable to chaotic conditions, resulted in an even greater population decline (>70% for the joint evolution of emigration probability and stopping rule) relative to when it was well adapted to the unstable prey dynamics. Similar relative reductions resulted for a transition from stable to cyclic conditions. Note in Fig. 6 the substantially higher predator population densities obtained in complex prey landscapes by predator populations that used multiple steps (Fig 6B) than by those only moving to a nearest neighbour cell (Fig 6A). Active searching for prey resources resulted in much larger predator populations.

Bottom Line: We additionally demonstrate that the cost of dispersal can vary substantially across space and time.Perhaps as a consequence of current environmental change, many key prey species are currently exhibiting major shifts in their spatio-temporal dynamics.By exploring similar shifts in silico, we predict that predator populations will be most vulnerable when prey dynamics shift from stable to complex.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK. justin.travis@abdn.ac.uk

ABSTRACT
The eco-evolutionary dynamics of dispersal are recognised as key in determining the responses of populations to environmental changes. Here, by developing a novel modelling approach, we show that predators are likely to have evolved to emigrate more often and become more selective over their destination patch when their prey species exhibit spatio-temporally complex dynamics. We additionally demonstrate that the cost of dispersal can vary substantially across space and time. Perhaps as a consequence of current environmental change, many key prey species are currently exhibiting major shifts in their spatio-temporal dynamics. By exploring similar shifts in silico, we predict that predator populations will be most vulnerable when prey dynamics shift from stable to complex. The more sophisticated dispersal rules, and greater variance therein, that evolve under complex dynamics will enable persistence across a broader range of prey dynamics than the rules which evolve under relatively stable prey conditions.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus