Limits...
Evolution of predator dispersal in relation to spatio-temporal prey dynamics: how not to get stuck in the wrong place!

Travis JM, Palmer SC, Coyne S, Millon A, Lambin X - PLoS ONE (2013)

Bottom Line: We additionally demonstrate that the cost of dispersal can vary substantially across space and time.Perhaps as a consequence of current environmental change, many key prey species are currently exhibiting major shifts in their spatio-temporal dynamics.By exploring similar shifts in silico, we predict that predator populations will be most vulnerable when prey dynamics shift from stable to complex.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK. justin.travis@abdn.ac.uk

ABSTRACT
The eco-evolutionary dynamics of dispersal are recognised as key in determining the responses of populations to environmental changes. Here, by developing a novel modelling approach, we show that predators are likely to have evolved to emigrate more often and become more selective over their destination patch when their prey species exhibit spatio-temporally complex dynamics. We additionally demonstrate that the cost of dispersal can vary substantially across space and time. Perhaps as a consequence of current environmental change, many key prey species are currently exhibiting major shifts in their spatio-temporal dynamics. By exploring similar shifts in silico, we predict that predator populations will be most vulnerable when prey dynamics shift from stable to complex. The more sophisticated dispersal rules, and greater variance therein, that evolve under complex dynamics will enable persistence across a broader range of prey dynamics than the rules which evolve under relatively stable prey conditions.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Evolution of predator emigration probability.Average predator emigration probabilities obtained after the model stabilized (left y-axis) for a range of r between 0.5 and 4.0 (by increments of 0.5). The three lines represent three different mortality costs of dispersal imposed on predators (from light grey to black: c = 0.05, 0.1, 0.2 respectively, see Methods). The bifurcation diagram shows the distribution of stable limits of the prey dynamics for the range of r values (right y-axis).The extent of variation in predator emigration probability at the population level is shown for two sets of simulations in the inserted panel (cost of dispersal c = 0.1 for both).
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pone-0054453-g001: Evolution of predator emigration probability.Average predator emigration probabilities obtained after the model stabilized (left y-axis) for a range of r between 0.5 and 4.0 (by increments of 0.5). The three lines represent three different mortality costs of dispersal imposed on predators (from light grey to black: c = 0.05, 0.1, 0.2 respectively, see Methods). The bifurcation diagram shows the distribution of stable limits of the prey dynamics for the range of r values (right y-axis).The extent of variation in predator emigration probability at the population level is shown for two sets of simulations in the inserted panel (cost of dispersal c = 0.1 for both).

Mentions: The spatio-temporal dynamics of the prey population varied according to the prey’s reproductive rate (r) (Fig. S1). For r <2.0, the dynamics were stable in space and time, and as r increased above 2.0 they became increasingly complex progressing through a cyclic regime where there were clear spatial travelling wave structures to a regime where the prey density within a patch exhibited much more complex fluctuations and the spatial structure of high prey density was more chaotic in nature. These prey dynamics exerted a strong influence on the evolution of a predator’s dispersal (Fig. 1). There were two main features of the relationship between prey r and the predator’s evolved dispersal. First, as r increased from 0.5 up to 2.0, lower emigration probabilities evolved. Note that for this range of r values, there was an increase in the (still stable) equilibrium prey population size (see the bifurcation map in Fig. 1). In this region of parameter space, whatever the dispersal cost, we find qualitatively similar declines in emigration probability; dispersal is roughly half as frequent when r = 2.0 as it is when r = 0.5. As expected, dispersal probability always substantially reduced as the cost of dispersing increased.


Evolution of predator dispersal in relation to spatio-temporal prey dynamics: how not to get stuck in the wrong place!

Travis JM, Palmer SC, Coyne S, Millon A, Lambin X - PLoS ONE (2013)

Evolution of predator emigration probability.Average predator emigration probabilities obtained after the model stabilized (left y-axis) for a range of r between 0.5 and 4.0 (by increments of 0.5). The three lines represent three different mortality costs of dispersal imposed on predators (from light grey to black: c = 0.05, 0.1, 0.2 respectively, see Methods). The bifurcation diagram shows the distribution of stable limits of the prey dynamics for the range of r values (right y-axis).The extent of variation in predator emigration probability at the population level is shown for two sets of simulations in the inserted panel (cost of dispersal c = 0.1 for both).
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3569443&req=5

pone-0054453-g001: Evolution of predator emigration probability.Average predator emigration probabilities obtained after the model stabilized (left y-axis) for a range of r between 0.5 and 4.0 (by increments of 0.5). The three lines represent three different mortality costs of dispersal imposed on predators (from light grey to black: c = 0.05, 0.1, 0.2 respectively, see Methods). The bifurcation diagram shows the distribution of stable limits of the prey dynamics for the range of r values (right y-axis).The extent of variation in predator emigration probability at the population level is shown for two sets of simulations in the inserted panel (cost of dispersal c = 0.1 for both).
Mentions: The spatio-temporal dynamics of the prey population varied according to the prey’s reproductive rate (r) (Fig. S1). For r <2.0, the dynamics were stable in space and time, and as r increased above 2.0 they became increasingly complex progressing through a cyclic regime where there were clear spatial travelling wave structures to a regime where the prey density within a patch exhibited much more complex fluctuations and the spatial structure of high prey density was more chaotic in nature. These prey dynamics exerted a strong influence on the evolution of a predator’s dispersal (Fig. 1). There were two main features of the relationship between prey r and the predator’s evolved dispersal. First, as r increased from 0.5 up to 2.0, lower emigration probabilities evolved. Note that for this range of r values, there was an increase in the (still stable) equilibrium prey population size (see the bifurcation map in Fig. 1). In this region of parameter space, whatever the dispersal cost, we find qualitatively similar declines in emigration probability; dispersal is roughly half as frequent when r = 2.0 as it is when r = 0.5. As expected, dispersal probability always substantially reduced as the cost of dispersing increased.

Bottom Line: We additionally demonstrate that the cost of dispersal can vary substantially across space and time.Perhaps as a consequence of current environmental change, many key prey species are currently exhibiting major shifts in their spatio-temporal dynamics.By exploring similar shifts in silico, we predict that predator populations will be most vulnerable when prey dynamics shift from stable to complex.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK. justin.travis@abdn.ac.uk

ABSTRACT
The eco-evolutionary dynamics of dispersal are recognised as key in determining the responses of populations to environmental changes. Here, by developing a novel modelling approach, we show that predators are likely to have evolved to emigrate more often and become more selective over their destination patch when their prey species exhibit spatio-temporally complex dynamics. We additionally demonstrate that the cost of dispersal can vary substantially across space and time. Perhaps as a consequence of current environmental change, many key prey species are currently exhibiting major shifts in their spatio-temporal dynamics. By exploring similar shifts in silico, we predict that predator populations will be most vulnerable when prey dynamics shift from stable to complex. The more sophisticated dispersal rules, and greater variance therein, that evolve under complex dynamics will enable persistence across a broader range of prey dynamics than the rules which evolve under relatively stable prey conditions.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus