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Electronic event-based surveillance for monitoring dengue, Latin America.

Hoen AG, Keller M, Verma AD, Buckeridge DL, Brownstein JS - Emerging Infect. Dis. (2012)

Bottom Line: The current dengue epidemic in Latin America represents a major threat to health.However, surveillance of affected regions lacks timeliness and precision.This approach could provide timely estimates of changes in distribution of dengue, a critical component of prevention and control efforts.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Children’s Hospital Boston, Boston, Massachusetts, USA. anne.g.hoen@dartmouth.edu

ABSTRACT
The current dengue epidemic in Latin America represents a major threat to health. However, surveillance of affected regions lacks timeliness and precision. We investigated real-time electronic sources for monitoring spread of dengue into new regions. This approach could provide timely estimates of changes in distribution of dengue, a critical component of prevention and control efforts.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Receiver-operating characteristic plot of 5-fold cross-validated HealthMap alert density-based classification with new dengue-endemic areas identified by the 2012 Yellow Book as the standard.
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Related In: Results  -  Collection


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Figure 2: Receiver-operating characteristic plot of 5-fold cross-validated HealthMap alert density-based classification with new dengue-endemic areas identified by the 2012 Yellow Book as the standard.

Mentions: Figure 1 shows that high dengue outbreak activity occurred adjacent to previously recognized dengue-endemic zones in 6 states in central Mexico and in parts of northern Argentina, southern Brazil, Bolivia, and Paraguay. We used receiver-operating characteristic analysis with cross-validation (Figure 2) to set a threshold dengue report density that best identifies new dengue-endemic areas (Figure 1; Technical Appendix). Of the 19 new dengue-endemic areas reported in the 2012 Yellow Book, this threshold identified 14 (74%) as being at elevated risk of endemicity, according to the dengue outbreak probability density estimated by our model. Of the 41 areas that remained unidentified as dengue-endemic areas in the 2012 Yellow Book, our model classified 35 (85%) as having reduced risk of endemicity.


Electronic event-based surveillance for monitoring dengue, Latin America.

Hoen AG, Keller M, Verma AD, Buckeridge DL, Brownstein JS - Emerging Infect. Dis. (2012)

Receiver-operating characteristic plot of 5-fold cross-validated HealthMap alert density-based classification with new dengue-endemic areas identified by the 2012 Yellow Book as the standard.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3376807&req=5

Figure 2: Receiver-operating characteristic plot of 5-fold cross-validated HealthMap alert density-based classification with new dengue-endemic areas identified by the 2012 Yellow Book as the standard.
Mentions: Figure 1 shows that high dengue outbreak activity occurred adjacent to previously recognized dengue-endemic zones in 6 states in central Mexico and in parts of northern Argentina, southern Brazil, Bolivia, and Paraguay. We used receiver-operating characteristic analysis with cross-validation (Figure 2) to set a threshold dengue report density that best identifies new dengue-endemic areas (Figure 1; Technical Appendix). Of the 19 new dengue-endemic areas reported in the 2012 Yellow Book, this threshold identified 14 (74%) as being at elevated risk of endemicity, according to the dengue outbreak probability density estimated by our model. Of the 41 areas that remained unidentified as dengue-endemic areas in the 2012 Yellow Book, our model classified 35 (85%) as having reduced risk of endemicity.

Bottom Line: The current dengue epidemic in Latin America represents a major threat to health.However, surveillance of affected regions lacks timeliness and precision.This approach could provide timely estimates of changes in distribution of dengue, a critical component of prevention and control efforts.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Children’s Hospital Boston, Boston, Massachusetts, USA. anne.g.hoen@dartmouth.edu

ABSTRACT
The current dengue epidemic in Latin America represents a major threat to health. However, surveillance of affected regions lacks timeliness and precision. We investigated real-time electronic sources for monitoring spread of dengue into new regions. This approach could provide timely estimates of changes in distribution of dengue, a critical component of prevention and control efforts.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus