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Electronic event-based surveillance for monitoring dengue, Latin America.

Hoen AG, Keller M, Verma AD, Buckeridge DL, Brownstein JS - Emerging Infect. Dis. (2012)

Bottom Line: The current dengue epidemic in Latin America represents a major threat to health.However, surveillance of affected regions lacks timeliness and precision.This approach could provide timely estimates of changes in distribution of dengue, a critical component of prevention and control efforts.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Children’s Hospital Boston, Boston, Massachusetts, USA. anne.g.hoen@dartmouth.edu

ABSTRACT
The current dengue epidemic in Latin America represents a major threat to health. However, surveillance of affected regions lacks timeliness and precision. We investigated real-time electronic sources for monitoring spread of dengue into new regions. This approach could provide timely estimates of changes in distribution of dengue, a critical component of prevention and control efforts.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

A) Regions in Latin America analyzed for dengue. B) Central Mexico; C) central South America; D) eastern Amazonas, Brazil. Thin gray lines indicate boundaries of first-level administrative units. Areas to which dengue was identified in the 2010 Yellow Book are shaded in gray. New dengue-endemic areas identified in the 2012 Yellow Book are outlined in blue. Dots indicate HealthMap dengue-related alerts. Modeled HealthMap alert probability density surface is shown in a gradient from yellow to red with yellow areas predicted as having lower alert densities and red areas predicted as having higher alert densities according to the model. Areas outlined with heavy black solid lines were classified as high HealthMap alert density but were not identified in either Yellow Book edition as dengue risk areas. Areas outlined with heavy black dashed lines were classified as low HealthMap alert density but were identified in the 2012 Yellow Book as areas at risk for dengue.
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Figure 1: A) Regions in Latin America analyzed for dengue. B) Central Mexico; C) central South America; D) eastern Amazonas, Brazil. Thin gray lines indicate boundaries of first-level administrative units. Areas to which dengue was identified in the 2010 Yellow Book are shaded in gray. New dengue-endemic areas identified in the 2012 Yellow Book are outlined in blue. Dots indicate HealthMap dengue-related alerts. Modeled HealthMap alert probability density surface is shown in a gradient from yellow to red with yellow areas predicted as having lower alert densities and red areas predicted as having higher alert densities according to the model. Areas outlined with heavy black solid lines were classified as high HealthMap alert density but were not identified in either Yellow Book edition as dengue risk areas. Areas outlined with heavy black dashed lines were classified as low HealthMap alert density but were identified in the 2012 Yellow Book as areas at risk for dengue.

Mentions: We fitted a bivariate Gaussian mixture model to the extracted HealthMap alerts to model a continuous surface of outbreak density (Technical Appendix). This modeled outbreak probability density surface represents a risk map of recent DENV spread into areas of previously unknown dengue endemicity according to the 2010 Yellow Book (Figure 1). We compared our map with the geographic distribution of new dengue-endemic areas identified in the 2012 Yellow Book. Details of the datasets, models, and statistical methods are available in the Technical Appendix.


Electronic event-based surveillance for monitoring dengue, Latin America.

Hoen AG, Keller M, Verma AD, Buckeridge DL, Brownstein JS - Emerging Infect. Dis. (2012)

A) Regions in Latin America analyzed for dengue. B) Central Mexico; C) central South America; D) eastern Amazonas, Brazil. Thin gray lines indicate boundaries of first-level administrative units. Areas to which dengue was identified in the 2010 Yellow Book are shaded in gray. New dengue-endemic areas identified in the 2012 Yellow Book are outlined in blue. Dots indicate HealthMap dengue-related alerts. Modeled HealthMap alert probability density surface is shown in a gradient from yellow to red with yellow areas predicted as having lower alert densities and red areas predicted as having higher alert densities according to the model. Areas outlined with heavy black solid lines were classified as high HealthMap alert density but were not identified in either Yellow Book edition as dengue risk areas. Areas outlined with heavy black dashed lines were classified as low HealthMap alert density but were identified in the 2012 Yellow Book as areas at risk for dengue.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3376807&req=5

Figure 1: A) Regions in Latin America analyzed for dengue. B) Central Mexico; C) central South America; D) eastern Amazonas, Brazil. Thin gray lines indicate boundaries of first-level administrative units. Areas to which dengue was identified in the 2010 Yellow Book are shaded in gray. New dengue-endemic areas identified in the 2012 Yellow Book are outlined in blue. Dots indicate HealthMap dengue-related alerts. Modeled HealthMap alert probability density surface is shown in a gradient from yellow to red with yellow areas predicted as having lower alert densities and red areas predicted as having higher alert densities according to the model. Areas outlined with heavy black solid lines were classified as high HealthMap alert density but were not identified in either Yellow Book edition as dengue risk areas. Areas outlined with heavy black dashed lines were classified as low HealthMap alert density but were identified in the 2012 Yellow Book as areas at risk for dengue.
Mentions: We fitted a bivariate Gaussian mixture model to the extracted HealthMap alerts to model a continuous surface of outbreak density (Technical Appendix). This modeled outbreak probability density surface represents a risk map of recent DENV spread into areas of previously unknown dengue endemicity according to the 2010 Yellow Book (Figure 1). We compared our map with the geographic distribution of new dengue-endemic areas identified in the 2012 Yellow Book. Details of the datasets, models, and statistical methods are available in the Technical Appendix.

Bottom Line: The current dengue epidemic in Latin America represents a major threat to health.However, surveillance of affected regions lacks timeliness and precision.This approach could provide timely estimates of changes in distribution of dengue, a critical component of prevention and control efforts.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Children’s Hospital Boston, Boston, Massachusetts, USA. anne.g.hoen@dartmouth.edu

ABSTRACT
The current dengue epidemic in Latin America represents a major threat to health. However, surveillance of affected regions lacks timeliness and precision. We investigated real-time electronic sources for monitoring spread of dengue into new regions. This approach could provide timely estimates of changes in distribution of dengue, a critical component of prevention and control efforts.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus