Phylogenetic inference via sequential Monte Carlo.
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We provide a theoretical treatment of PosetSMC and also present experimental evaluation of PosetSMC on both synthetic and real data.The empirical results demonstrate that PosetSMC is a very promising alternative to MCMC, providing up to two orders of magnitude faster convergence.We discuss other factors favorable to the adoption of PosetSMC in phylogenetics, including its ability to estimate marginal likelihoods, its ready implementability on parallel and distributed computing platforms, and the possibility of combining with MCMC in hybrid MCMC-SMC schemes.
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PubMed Central - PubMed
Affiliation: Department of Statistics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada.
ABSTRACT
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Bayesian inference provides an appealing general framework for phylogenetic analysis, able to incorporate a wide variety of modeling assumptions and to provide a coherent treatment of uncertainty. Existing computational approaches to bayesian inference based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) have not, however, kept pace with the scale of the data analysis problems in phylogenetics, and this has hindered the adoption of bayesian methods. In this paper, we present an alternative to MCMC based on Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). We develop an extension of classical SMC based on partially ordered sets and show how to apply this framework--which we refer to as PosetSMC--to phylogenetic analysis. We provide a theoretical treatment of PosetSMC and also present experimental evaluation of PosetSMC on both synthetic and real data. The empirical results demonstrate that PosetSMC is a very promising alternative to MCMC, providing up to two orders of magnitude faster convergence. We discuss other factors favorable to the adoption of PosetSMC in phylogenetics, including its ability to estimate marginal likelihoods, its ready implementability on parallel and distributed computing platforms, and the possibility of combining with MCMC in hybrid MCMC-SMC schemes. Software for PosetSMC is available at http://www.stat.ubc.ca/ bouchard/PosetSMC. |
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Mentions: There are (2n−3)!! =1×3 × 5 = 15 rooted topologies on four taxa, and in Figure 2, we show schematically a subset of the Hasse diagram of the particle paths that lead to these trees under the naive proposal described above. It is clear from the figure that a balanced binary tree on four taxa, with rooted clades {A,B},{C,D}, can be proposed in two different ways: either by first merging A and B, then C and D, or by merging C and D, then A and B. On the other hand, an unbalanced tree on the same set of taxa can be proposed in a single way, for example, {A,B} → {A,B,C}. As a consequence, if we assume there are no observations at the leaves, the expected fraction of particles with a caterpillar topology of each type is 1/18 (because there are 18 distinct paths in Fig. 2), whereas the expected fraction of particles with a balanced topology of each type is 2/18 =1/9. However, since we have assumed there are no observations, the posterior should be equal to the prior, a uniform distribution. Therefore, the naive proposal leads to a biased approximate posterior.FIGURE 2. |
View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed
Affiliation: Department of Statistics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada.