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Applying network theory to epidemics: control measures for Mycoplasma pneumoniae outbreaks.

Ancel Meyers L, Newman ME, Martin M, Schrag S - Emerging Infect. Dis. (2003)

Bottom Line: Our model explicitly captures the patterns of interactions among patients and caregivers in an institution with multiple wards.Analysis of this contact network predicts that, despite the relatively low prevalence of mycoplasma pneumonia found among caregivers, the patterns of caregiver activity and the extent to which they are protected against infection may be fundamental to the control and prevention of mycoplasma outbreaks.In particular, the most effective interventions are those that reduce the diversity of interactions between caregivers and patients.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA. ancel@mail.utexas.edu

ABSTRACT
We introduce a novel mathematical approach to investigating the spread and control of communicable infections in closed communities. Mycoplasma pneumoniae is a major cause of bacterial pneumonia in the United States. Outbreaks of illness attributable to mycoplasma commonly occur in closed or semi-closed communities. These outbreaks are difficult to contain because of delays in outbreak detection, the long incubation period of the bacterium, and an incomplete understanding of the effectiveness of infection control strategies. Our model explicitly captures the patterns of interactions among patients and caregivers in an institution with multiple wards. Analysis of this contact network predicts that, despite the relatively low prevalence of mycoplasma pneumonia found among caregivers, the patterns of caregiver activity and the extent to which they are protected against infection may be fundamental to the control and prevention of mycoplasma outbreaks. In particular, the most effective interventions are those that reduce the diversity of interactions between caregivers and patients.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Epidemic thresholds. Each line assumes a different value for μc(the average number of wards per caregiver), and graphs the combination of τc and τw(transmission parameters) above which the population crosses the epidemic threshold. From top to bottom, the lines represent μc= 1, μc= 2, μc= 3, μc= 4, and μc= 5 .
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Figure 4: Epidemic thresholds. Each line assumes a different value for μc(the average number of wards per caregiver), and graphs the combination of τc and τw(transmission parameters) above which the population crosses the epidemic threshold. From top to bottom, the lines represent μc= 1, μc= 2, μc= 3, μc= 4, and μc= 5 .

Mentions: Figure 4 illustrates the epidemic threshold for five different demographic scenarios ( μc = 1,2,3,4,5 ). For the most densely connected case, when each caregiver works in five wards on average, the epidemic threshold is crossed at very low rates of transmission. When the community is less densely connected, it can withstand much higher infectivity without giving rise to epidemics.


Applying network theory to epidemics: control measures for Mycoplasma pneumoniae outbreaks.

Ancel Meyers L, Newman ME, Martin M, Schrag S - Emerging Infect. Dis. (2003)

Epidemic thresholds. Each line assumes a different value for μc(the average number of wards per caregiver), and graphs the combination of τc and τw(transmission parameters) above which the population crosses the epidemic threshold. From top to bottom, the lines represent μc= 1, μc= 2, μc= 3, μc= 4, and μc= 5 .
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3369603&req=5

Figure 4: Epidemic thresholds. Each line assumes a different value for μc(the average number of wards per caregiver), and graphs the combination of τc and τw(transmission parameters) above which the population crosses the epidemic threshold. From top to bottom, the lines represent μc= 1, μc= 2, μc= 3, μc= 4, and μc= 5 .
Mentions: Figure 4 illustrates the epidemic threshold for five different demographic scenarios ( μc = 1,2,3,4,5 ). For the most densely connected case, when each caregiver works in five wards on average, the epidemic threshold is crossed at very low rates of transmission. When the community is less densely connected, it can withstand much higher infectivity without giving rise to epidemics.

Bottom Line: Our model explicitly captures the patterns of interactions among patients and caregivers in an institution with multiple wards.Analysis of this contact network predicts that, despite the relatively low prevalence of mycoplasma pneumonia found among caregivers, the patterns of caregiver activity and the extent to which they are protected against infection may be fundamental to the control and prevention of mycoplasma outbreaks.In particular, the most effective interventions are those that reduce the diversity of interactions between caregivers and patients.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA. ancel@mail.utexas.edu

ABSTRACT
We introduce a novel mathematical approach to investigating the spread and control of communicable infections in closed communities. Mycoplasma pneumoniae is a major cause of bacterial pneumonia in the United States. Outbreaks of illness attributable to mycoplasma commonly occur in closed or semi-closed communities. These outbreaks are difficult to contain because of delays in outbreak detection, the long incubation period of the bacterium, and an incomplete understanding of the effectiveness of infection control strategies. Our model explicitly captures the patterns of interactions among patients and caregivers in an institution with multiple wards. Analysis of this contact network predicts that, despite the relatively low prevalence of mycoplasma pneumonia found among caregivers, the patterns of caregiver activity and the extent to which they are protected against infection may be fundamental to the control and prevention of mycoplasma outbreaks. In particular, the most effective interventions are those that reduce the diversity of interactions between caregivers and patients.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus