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Applying network theory to epidemics: control measures for Mycoplasma pneumoniae outbreaks.

Ancel Meyers L, Newman ME, Martin M, Schrag S - Emerging Infect. Dis. (2003)

Bottom Line: Our model explicitly captures the patterns of interactions among patients and caregivers in an institution with multiple wards.Analysis of this contact network predicts that, despite the relatively low prevalence of mycoplasma pneumonia found among caregivers, the patterns of caregiver activity and the extent to which they are protected against infection may be fundamental to the control and prevention of mycoplasma outbreaks.In particular, the most effective interventions are those that reduce the diversity of interactions between caregivers and patients.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA. ancel@mail.utexas.edu

ABSTRACT
We introduce a novel mathematical approach to investigating the spread and control of communicable infections in closed communities. Mycoplasma pneumoniae is a major cause of bacterial pneumonia in the United States. Outbreaks of illness attributable to mycoplasma commonly occur in closed or semi-closed communities. These outbreaks are difficult to contain because of delays in outbreak detection, the long incubation period of the bacterium, and an incomplete understanding of the effectiveness of infection control strategies. Our model explicitly captures the patterns of interactions among patients and caregivers in an institution with multiple wards. Analysis of this contact network predicts that, despite the relatively low prevalence of mycoplasma pneumonia found among caregivers, the patterns of caregiver activity and the extent to which they are protected against infection may be fundamental to the control and prevention of mycoplasma outbreaks. In particular, the most effective interventions are those that reduce the diversity of interactions between caregivers and patients.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Future transmission diagram I, summing all possible future transmissions stemming from a caregiver who works in an infected ward.
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Figure 2: Future transmission diagram I, summing all possible future transmissions stemming from a caregiver who works in an infected ward.

Mentions: First, consider an edge linking an infected ward to a caregiver. Figure 2 breaks down the possible scenarios. First, the caregiver may not become infected. Second, the caregiver might become infected but not transmit to any other wards. Third, the caregiver might transmit infection to one or more other wards in which he or she works. In Appendix B, we construct a pgf by summing up the probabilities of these different outcomes.


Applying network theory to epidemics: control measures for Mycoplasma pneumoniae outbreaks.

Ancel Meyers L, Newman ME, Martin M, Schrag S - Emerging Infect. Dis. (2003)

Future transmission diagram I, summing all possible future transmissions stemming from a caregiver who works in an infected ward.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3369603&req=5

Figure 2: Future transmission diagram I, summing all possible future transmissions stemming from a caregiver who works in an infected ward.
Mentions: First, consider an edge linking an infected ward to a caregiver. Figure 2 breaks down the possible scenarios. First, the caregiver may not become infected. Second, the caregiver might become infected but not transmit to any other wards. Third, the caregiver might transmit infection to one or more other wards in which he or she works. In Appendix B, we construct a pgf by summing up the probabilities of these different outcomes.

Bottom Line: Our model explicitly captures the patterns of interactions among patients and caregivers in an institution with multiple wards.Analysis of this contact network predicts that, despite the relatively low prevalence of mycoplasma pneumonia found among caregivers, the patterns of caregiver activity and the extent to which they are protected against infection may be fundamental to the control and prevention of mycoplasma outbreaks.In particular, the most effective interventions are those that reduce the diversity of interactions between caregivers and patients.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA. ancel@mail.utexas.edu

ABSTRACT
We introduce a novel mathematical approach to investigating the spread and control of communicable infections in closed communities. Mycoplasma pneumoniae is a major cause of bacterial pneumonia in the United States. Outbreaks of illness attributable to mycoplasma commonly occur in closed or semi-closed communities. These outbreaks are difficult to contain because of delays in outbreak detection, the long incubation period of the bacterium, and an incomplete understanding of the effectiveness of infection control strategies. Our model explicitly captures the patterns of interactions among patients and caregivers in an institution with multiple wards. Analysis of this contact network predicts that, despite the relatively low prevalence of mycoplasma pneumonia found among caregivers, the patterns of caregiver activity and the extent to which they are protected against infection may be fundamental to the control and prevention of mycoplasma outbreaks. In particular, the most effective interventions are those that reduce the diversity of interactions between caregivers and patients.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus