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Impact of climate change on children's health in Limpopo Province, South Africa.

Thompson AA, Matamale L, Kharidza SD - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2012)

Bottom Line: The results show that the most prevalent diseases were diarrhea (42.4%), followed by respiratory infection (31.3%), asthma (6.6%) and malaria (6.5%).Mortality rate was higher for males (54.2%).Similarly rainfall decreased over time in all the cities, with r ranging from -0.02 for Bela Bela to r = 0.18 for Makhado.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Venda, Private Bag X5050, Thohoyandou, 0950, Limpopo, South Africa. thompson.adeboyejo@univen.ac.za

ABSTRACT
This paper examines the impact of climate change on children's health, in the Limpopo Province of South Africa. Twenty one years climatic data were collected to analyse climatic conditions in the province. The study also employs 12 years hospital records of clinically diagnosed climate-related ailments among children under 13 years to examine the incidence, spatio-temporal, age and sex variations of the diseases. Regression analysis was employed to examine the relationships between climatic parameters and incidence of diseases and also to predict distribution of disease by 2050. The results show that the most prevalent diseases were diarrhea (42.4%), followed by respiratory infection (31.3%), asthma (6.6%) and malaria (6.5%). The incidence varied within city, with the high density areas recording the highest proportion (76.7%), followed by the medium (9.4%) and low (2.5%) density residential areas. The most tropical location, Mussina, had the highest incidence of the most prevalent disease, diarrhea, with 59.4%. Mortality rate was higher for males (54.2%). Analysis of 21 years of climatic data show that maximum temperature is positively correlated with years in four cities with r coefficients of 0.50; 0.56, 0.48 and 0.02, thereby indicating local warming. Similarly rainfall decreased over time in all the cities, with r ranging from -0.02 for Bela Bela to r = 0.18 for Makhado. Results of the regression analysis show that 37.9% of disease incidence is accounted for by the combined influence of temperature and rainfall.

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Projected distribution of diseases 2011 to 2050.
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ijerph-09-00831-f010: Projected distribution of diseases 2011 to 2050.

Mentions: The results of the first scenario, as illustrated in Figure 10, are the predicted values based on observed trend of each of the diseases between 1999 and 2010. Since the 12 year trend shows a consistent increase with time, as indicated by positive r coefficient, as observed earlier in Section 4.4, the predicted values are the linear functions of the distribution. Figure 10 reveals the dominating prevalence of diarrhea and respiratory infection and that from 2011 to 2050, these diseases will progressively increase and perhaps reach an epidemic proportion by 2050 if not brought under control. In order to highlight the implications of this observation, the prevalence rates of diarrhea and respiratory infection among the children below 5 years of age is calculated using the 2007 mid-year estimated population of this cohort as provided by SA statistics [23] and using a conservative children population growth rate of 3.0 percent to project the population up to year 2050 and express the disease incidence as a quotient of the population. The results summarized in Table 5 show that from a prevalence rate of 0.08 per cent of population of children below 5 years in 2010, prevalence of diarrhea will increase to 0.1 per cent in 2020 and 0.2 per cent by 2050. The prevalence rates for respiratory infection will increase slightly, from 0.05 per cent in 2010 to 0.1 by 2050. The above implies that by 2050 about one in every one thousand children will suffer from these diseases if the current rate is maintained. However, the prevalence rate will be much higher, if the population of children below 5 years (the most affected group as observed earlier in this paper) is considered.


Impact of climate change on children's health in Limpopo Province, South Africa.

Thompson AA, Matamale L, Kharidza SD - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2012)

Projected distribution of diseases 2011 to 2050.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3367281&req=5

ijerph-09-00831-f010: Projected distribution of diseases 2011 to 2050.
Mentions: The results of the first scenario, as illustrated in Figure 10, are the predicted values based on observed trend of each of the diseases between 1999 and 2010. Since the 12 year trend shows a consistent increase with time, as indicated by positive r coefficient, as observed earlier in Section 4.4, the predicted values are the linear functions of the distribution. Figure 10 reveals the dominating prevalence of diarrhea and respiratory infection and that from 2011 to 2050, these diseases will progressively increase and perhaps reach an epidemic proportion by 2050 if not brought under control. In order to highlight the implications of this observation, the prevalence rates of diarrhea and respiratory infection among the children below 5 years of age is calculated using the 2007 mid-year estimated population of this cohort as provided by SA statistics [23] and using a conservative children population growth rate of 3.0 percent to project the population up to year 2050 and express the disease incidence as a quotient of the population. The results summarized in Table 5 show that from a prevalence rate of 0.08 per cent of population of children below 5 years in 2010, prevalence of diarrhea will increase to 0.1 per cent in 2020 and 0.2 per cent by 2050. The prevalence rates for respiratory infection will increase slightly, from 0.05 per cent in 2010 to 0.1 by 2050. The above implies that by 2050 about one in every one thousand children will suffer from these diseases if the current rate is maintained. However, the prevalence rate will be much higher, if the population of children below 5 years (the most affected group as observed earlier in this paper) is considered.

Bottom Line: The results show that the most prevalent diseases were diarrhea (42.4%), followed by respiratory infection (31.3%), asthma (6.6%) and malaria (6.5%).Mortality rate was higher for males (54.2%).Similarly rainfall decreased over time in all the cities, with r ranging from -0.02 for Bela Bela to r = 0.18 for Makhado.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Venda, Private Bag X5050, Thohoyandou, 0950, Limpopo, South Africa. thompson.adeboyejo@univen.ac.za

ABSTRACT
This paper examines the impact of climate change on children's health, in the Limpopo Province of South Africa. Twenty one years climatic data were collected to analyse climatic conditions in the province. The study also employs 12 years hospital records of clinically diagnosed climate-related ailments among children under 13 years to examine the incidence, spatio-temporal, age and sex variations of the diseases. Regression analysis was employed to examine the relationships between climatic parameters and incidence of diseases and also to predict distribution of disease by 2050. The results show that the most prevalent diseases were diarrhea (42.4%), followed by respiratory infection (31.3%), asthma (6.6%) and malaria (6.5%). The incidence varied within city, with the high density areas recording the highest proportion (76.7%), followed by the medium (9.4%) and low (2.5%) density residential areas. The most tropical location, Mussina, had the highest incidence of the most prevalent disease, diarrhea, with 59.4%. Mortality rate was higher for males (54.2%). Analysis of 21 years of climatic data show that maximum temperature is positively correlated with years in four cities with r coefficients of 0.50; 0.56, 0.48 and 0.02, thereby indicating local warming. Similarly rainfall decreased over time in all the cities, with r ranging from -0.02 for Bela Bela to r = 0.18 for Makhado. Results of the regression analysis show that 37.9% of disease incidence is accounted for by the combined influence of temperature and rainfall.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus