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Impact of climate change on children's health in Limpopo Province, South Africa.

Thompson AA, Matamale L, Kharidza SD - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2012)

Bottom Line: The results show that the most prevalent diseases were diarrhea (42.4%), followed by respiratory infection (31.3%), asthma (6.6%) and malaria (6.5%).Mortality rate was higher for males (54.2%).Similarly rainfall decreased over time in all the cities, with r ranging from -0.02 for Bela Bela to r = 0.18 for Makhado.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Venda, Private Bag X5050, Thohoyandou, 0950, Limpopo, South Africa. thompson.adeboyejo@univen.ac.za

ABSTRACT
This paper examines the impact of climate change on children's health, in the Limpopo Province of South Africa. Twenty one years climatic data were collected to analyse climatic conditions in the province. The study also employs 12 years hospital records of clinically diagnosed climate-related ailments among children under 13 years to examine the incidence, spatio-temporal, age and sex variations of the diseases. Regression analysis was employed to examine the relationships between climatic parameters and incidence of diseases and also to predict distribution of disease by 2050. The results show that the most prevalent diseases were diarrhea (42.4%), followed by respiratory infection (31.3%), asthma (6.6%) and malaria (6.5%). The incidence varied within city, with the high density areas recording the highest proportion (76.7%), followed by the medium (9.4%) and low (2.5%) density residential areas. The most tropical location, Mussina, had the highest incidence of the most prevalent disease, diarrhea, with 59.4%. Mortality rate was higher for males (54.2%). Analysis of 21 years of climatic data show that maximum temperature is positively correlated with years in four cities with r coefficients of 0.50; 0.56, 0.48 and 0.02, thereby indicating local warming. Similarly rainfall decreased over time in all the cities, with r ranging from -0.02 for Bela Bela to r = 0.18 for Makhado. Results of the regression analysis show that 37.9% of disease incidence is accounted for by the combined influence of temperature and rainfall.

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Rainfall trends 1990 to 2010.
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ijerph-09-00831-f003: Rainfall trends 1990 to 2010.

Mentions: Figure 3 shows that although the average annual rainfall fluctuates, it is generally low in the various municipalities during the 21 year period. Tzaneen, a subtropical location, had the highest values, ranging from 43 mm in 2002 to 254 mm in 2006. The relationship between annual rainfall and years was analysed using Pearson correlation. The results show positive but very low coefficients of 0.027, 0.063, 0.020 and 0.188, respectively, for Polokwane, Tzaneen, Mussina and Makhado, and a negative coefficient for BelaBela, the most subtropical location, with R = −0.022. Decreasing rainfall implies that the province is at risk of water stress, which Boko et al. [36] noted is being faced by some countries in Africa. The province therefore will add to the 25% of Africa’s population (about 2 million people) that is currently experiencing high water stress, featuring pressure on water availability, water accessibility and water demand. The brunt of this impact would be borne by the children and the elderly, the most vulnerable groups in society.


Impact of climate change on children's health in Limpopo Province, South Africa.

Thompson AA, Matamale L, Kharidza SD - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2012)

Rainfall trends 1990 to 2010.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3367281&req=5

ijerph-09-00831-f003: Rainfall trends 1990 to 2010.
Mentions: Figure 3 shows that although the average annual rainfall fluctuates, it is generally low in the various municipalities during the 21 year period. Tzaneen, a subtropical location, had the highest values, ranging from 43 mm in 2002 to 254 mm in 2006. The relationship between annual rainfall and years was analysed using Pearson correlation. The results show positive but very low coefficients of 0.027, 0.063, 0.020 and 0.188, respectively, for Polokwane, Tzaneen, Mussina and Makhado, and a negative coefficient for BelaBela, the most subtropical location, with R = −0.022. Decreasing rainfall implies that the province is at risk of water stress, which Boko et al. [36] noted is being faced by some countries in Africa. The province therefore will add to the 25% of Africa’s population (about 2 million people) that is currently experiencing high water stress, featuring pressure on water availability, water accessibility and water demand. The brunt of this impact would be borne by the children and the elderly, the most vulnerable groups in society.

Bottom Line: The results show that the most prevalent diseases were diarrhea (42.4%), followed by respiratory infection (31.3%), asthma (6.6%) and malaria (6.5%).Mortality rate was higher for males (54.2%).Similarly rainfall decreased over time in all the cities, with r ranging from -0.02 for Bela Bela to r = 0.18 for Makhado.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Venda, Private Bag X5050, Thohoyandou, 0950, Limpopo, South Africa. thompson.adeboyejo@univen.ac.za

ABSTRACT
This paper examines the impact of climate change on children's health, in the Limpopo Province of South Africa. Twenty one years climatic data were collected to analyse climatic conditions in the province. The study also employs 12 years hospital records of clinically diagnosed climate-related ailments among children under 13 years to examine the incidence, spatio-temporal, age and sex variations of the diseases. Regression analysis was employed to examine the relationships between climatic parameters and incidence of diseases and also to predict distribution of disease by 2050. The results show that the most prevalent diseases were diarrhea (42.4%), followed by respiratory infection (31.3%), asthma (6.6%) and malaria (6.5%). The incidence varied within city, with the high density areas recording the highest proportion (76.7%), followed by the medium (9.4%) and low (2.5%) density residential areas. The most tropical location, Mussina, had the highest incidence of the most prevalent disease, diarrhea, with 59.4%. Mortality rate was higher for males (54.2%). Analysis of 21 years of climatic data show that maximum temperature is positively correlated with years in four cities with r coefficients of 0.50; 0.56, 0.48 and 0.02, thereby indicating local warming. Similarly rainfall decreased over time in all the cities, with r ranging from -0.02 for Bela Bela to r = 0.18 for Makhado. Results of the regression analysis show that 37.9% of disease incidence is accounted for by the combined influence of temperature and rainfall.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus