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Impact of climate change on children's health in Limpopo Province, South Africa.

Thompson AA, Matamale L, Kharidza SD - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2012)

Bottom Line: The results show that the most prevalent diseases were diarrhea (42.4%), followed by respiratory infection (31.3%), asthma (6.6%) and malaria (6.5%).Mortality rate was higher for males (54.2%).Similarly rainfall decreased over time in all the cities, with r ranging from -0.02 for Bela Bela to r = 0.18 for Makhado.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Venda, Private Bag X5050, Thohoyandou, 0950, Limpopo, South Africa. thompson.adeboyejo@univen.ac.za

ABSTRACT
This paper examines the impact of climate change on children's health, in the Limpopo Province of South Africa. Twenty one years climatic data were collected to analyse climatic conditions in the province. The study also employs 12 years hospital records of clinically diagnosed climate-related ailments among children under 13 years to examine the incidence, spatio-temporal, age and sex variations of the diseases. Regression analysis was employed to examine the relationships between climatic parameters and incidence of diseases and also to predict distribution of disease by 2050. The results show that the most prevalent diseases were diarrhea (42.4%), followed by respiratory infection (31.3%), asthma (6.6%) and malaria (6.5%). The incidence varied within city, with the high density areas recording the highest proportion (76.7%), followed by the medium (9.4%) and low (2.5%) density residential areas. The most tropical location, Mussina, had the highest incidence of the most prevalent disease, diarrhea, with 59.4%. Mortality rate was higher for males (54.2%). Analysis of 21 years of climatic data show that maximum temperature is positively correlated with years in four cities with r coefficients of 0.50; 0.56, 0.48 and 0.02, thereby indicating local warming. Similarly rainfall decreased over time in all the cities, with r ranging from -0.02 for Bela Bela to r = 0.18 for Makhado. Results of the regression analysis show that 37.9% of disease incidence is accounted for by the combined influence of temperature and rainfall.

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(a) Trend in maximum temperature 1990 to 2010; (b) Trend in minimum temperature 1990 to 2010.
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ijerph-09-00831-f002: (a) Trend in maximum temperature 1990 to 2010; (b) Trend in minimum temperature 1990 to 2010.

Mentions: The trend of climatic parameters in the province was analysed using 21 years of data on temperature and rainfall. As shown in Figure 2a, while expectedly there are fluctuations in maximum temperature during the period, the trend shows an overall increase for the four municipalities for which the data type was available. Temperature data was not available for Makhado Municipality. The R coefficient of variations for each of the cities are 0.50, 0.56, 0.48, and 0.02 respectively for Bela-Bela, Tzaneen, Mussina and Polokwane. The corresponding R coefficients for minimum temperature are 0.004, −0.383, −0.004 and 0.135. The above shows that, while maximum temperature tends to increase during the 21 years period, minimum temperature shows a decrease over the same period, thereby indicating tendency towards local warming which is a possible consequence of climate change in the province. Maximum temperature in the most tropical location, Mussina, was the highest, ranging from 29 °C to 32.2 °C, giving an annual increase of 0.15 °C while for BelaBela, the most subtropical of the locations, maximum temperature ranged from 25.5 °C to 29.6 °C, also giving an annual increase of 0.19 °C. This finding is in line with the IPCC [34] observation to the effect that temperatures have indicated a greater warming trend in Africa since 1960. Also decadal warming rates of between 0.1 °C to 0.3 °C have been observed in South Africa [35].


Impact of climate change on children's health in Limpopo Province, South Africa.

Thompson AA, Matamale L, Kharidza SD - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2012)

(a) Trend in maximum temperature 1990 to 2010; (b) Trend in minimum temperature 1990 to 2010.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3367281&req=5

ijerph-09-00831-f002: (a) Trend in maximum temperature 1990 to 2010; (b) Trend in minimum temperature 1990 to 2010.
Mentions: The trend of climatic parameters in the province was analysed using 21 years of data on temperature and rainfall. As shown in Figure 2a, while expectedly there are fluctuations in maximum temperature during the period, the trend shows an overall increase for the four municipalities for which the data type was available. Temperature data was not available for Makhado Municipality. The R coefficient of variations for each of the cities are 0.50, 0.56, 0.48, and 0.02 respectively for Bela-Bela, Tzaneen, Mussina and Polokwane. The corresponding R coefficients for minimum temperature are 0.004, −0.383, −0.004 and 0.135. The above shows that, while maximum temperature tends to increase during the 21 years period, minimum temperature shows a decrease over the same period, thereby indicating tendency towards local warming which is a possible consequence of climate change in the province. Maximum temperature in the most tropical location, Mussina, was the highest, ranging from 29 °C to 32.2 °C, giving an annual increase of 0.15 °C while for BelaBela, the most subtropical of the locations, maximum temperature ranged from 25.5 °C to 29.6 °C, also giving an annual increase of 0.19 °C. This finding is in line with the IPCC [34] observation to the effect that temperatures have indicated a greater warming trend in Africa since 1960. Also decadal warming rates of between 0.1 °C to 0.3 °C have been observed in South Africa [35].

Bottom Line: The results show that the most prevalent diseases were diarrhea (42.4%), followed by respiratory infection (31.3%), asthma (6.6%) and malaria (6.5%).Mortality rate was higher for males (54.2%).Similarly rainfall decreased over time in all the cities, with r ranging from -0.02 for Bela Bela to r = 0.18 for Makhado.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Venda, Private Bag X5050, Thohoyandou, 0950, Limpopo, South Africa. thompson.adeboyejo@univen.ac.za

ABSTRACT
This paper examines the impact of climate change on children's health, in the Limpopo Province of South Africa. Twenty one years climatic data were collected to analyse climatic conditions in the province. The study also employs 12 years hospital records of clinically diagnosed climate-related ailments among children under 13 years to examine the incidence, spatio-temporal, age and sex variations of the diseases. Regression analysis was employed to examine the relationships between climatic parameters and incidence of diseases and also to predict distribution of disease by 2050. The results show that the most prevalent diseases were diarrhea (42.4%), followed by respiratory infection (31.3%), asthma (6.6%) and malaria (6.5%). The incidence varied within city, with the high density areas recording the highest proportion (76.7%), followed by the medium (9.4%) and low (2.5%) density residential areas. The most tropical location, Mussina, had the highest incidence of the most prevalent disease, diarrhea, with 59.4%. Mortality rate was higher for males (54.2%). Analysis of 21 years of climatic data show that maximum temperature is positively correlated with years in four cities with r coefficients of 0.50; 0.56, 0.48 and 0.02, thereby indicating local warming. Similarly rainfall decreased over time in all the cities, with r ranging from -0.02 for Bela Bela to r = 0.18 for Makhado. Results of the regression analysis show that 37.9% of disease incidence is accounted for by the combined influence of temperature and rainfall.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus