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What is the optimal level of population alcohol consumption for chronic disease prevention in England? Modelling the impact of changes in average consumption levels.

Nichols M, Scarborough P, Allender S, Rayner M - BMJ Open (2012)

Bottom Line: The optimum median consumption level for drinkers in the model was 5 g/day (about half a unit), which would avert or delay 4579 (2544 to 6590) deaths per year.The model showed no benefit in terms of reduced mortality when the proportion of non-drinkers in the population was increased.Public health targets should aim for a reduction in population alcohol consumption in order to reduce chronic disease mortality.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Population Health Strategic Research Centre, Deakin University, Geelong, Australia.

ABSTRACT

Objective: To estimate the impact of achieving alternative average population alcohol consumption levels on chronic disease mortality in England.

Design: A macro-simulation model was built to simultaneously estimate the number of deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke, hypertensive disease, diabetes, liver cirrhosis, epilepsy and five cancers that would be averted or delayed annually as a result of changes in alcohol consumption among English adults. Counterfactual scenarios assessed the impact on alcohol-related mortalities of changing (1) the median alcohol consumption of drinkers and (2) the percentage of non-drinkers.

Data sources: Risk relationships were drawn from published meta-analyses. Age- and sex-specific distributions of alcohol consumption (grams per day) for the English population in 2006 were drawn from the General Household Survey 2006, and age-, sex- and cause-specific mortality data for 2006 were provided by the Office for National Statistics.

Results: The optimum median consumption level for drinkers in the model was 5 g/day (about half a unit), which would avert or delay 4579 (2544 to 6590) deaths per year. Approximately equal numbers of deaths from cancers and liver disease would be delayed or averted (∼2800 for each), while there was a small increase in cardiovascular mortality. The model showed no benefit in terms of reduced mortality when the proportion of non-drinkers in the population was increased.

Conclusions: Current government recommendations for alcohol consumption are well above the level likely to minimise chronic disease. Public health targets should aim for a reduction in population alcohol consumption in order to reduce chronic disease mortality.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Deaths delayed or averted in the counterfactual scenario varying median consumption of alcohol in drinkers. The median consumption of alcohol among drinkers was allowed to vary from 0 to 24 g/day using England 2006 as the baseline. The percentage of non-drinkers in the population was held constant.
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fig1: Deaths delayed or averted in the counterfactual scenario varying median consumption of alcohol in drinkers. The median consumption of alcohol among drinkers was allowed to vary from 0 to 24 g/day using England 2006 as the baseline. The percentage of non-drinkers in the population was held constant.

Mentions: In the first counterfactual scenario, varying the median population level of alcohol consumption among current drinkers between 1 and 48 g/day, results showed that approximately 5 g/day (just over half of one unit) was the optimal level of alcohol consumption, resulting in 4579 (2544–6590) deaths delayed or averted (table 2 and figure 1) or approximately 3% of all deaths from partially alcohol-related chronic diseases. At this level of consumption, a small predicted increase in risk of CVD (843 additional deaths per year, +0.7% from 2006 levels) is counteracted by large decreases in cancer (2668 fewer deaths, −8%) and liver disease (2828 fewer deaths, −49%). At this level of consumption, the vast majority (90%) of deaths delayed or averted were premature (before age 75).


What is the optimal level of population alcohol consumption for chronic disease prevention in England? Modelling the impact of changes in average consumption levels.

Nichols M, Scarborough P, Allender S, Rayner M - BMJ Open (2012)

Deaths delayed or averted in the counterfactual scenario varying median consumption of alcohol in drinkers. The median consumption of alcohol among drinkers was allowed to vary from 0 to 24 g/day using England 2006 as the baseline. The percentage of non-drinkers in the population was held constant.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License 1 - License 2
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3367150&req=5

fig1: Deaths delayed or averted in the counterfactual scenario varying median consumption of alcohol in drinkers. The median consumption of alcohol among drinkers was allowed to vary from 0 to 24 g/day using England 2006 as the baseline. The percentage of non-drinkers in the population was held constant.
Mentions: In the first counterfactual scenario, varying the median population level of alcohol consumption among current drinkers between 1 and 48 g/day, results showed that approximately 5 g/day (just over half of one unit) was the optimal level of alcohol consumption, resulting in 4579 (2544–6590) deaths delayed or averted (table 2 and figure 1) or approximately 3% of all deaths from partially alcohol-related chronic diseases. At this level of consumption, a small predicted increase in risk of CVD (843 additional deaths per year, +0.7% from 2006 levels) is counteracted by large decreases in cancer (2668 fewer deaths, −8%) and liver disease (2828 fewer deaths, −49%). At this level of consumption, the vast majority (90%) of deaths delayed or averted were premature (before age 75).

Bottom Line: The optimum median consumption level for drinkers in the model was 5 g/day (about half a unit), which would avert or delay 4579 (2544 to 6590) deaths per year.The model showed no benefit in terms of reduced mortality when the proportion of non-drinkers in the population was increased.Public health targets should aim for a reduction in population alcohol consumption in order to reduce chronic disease mortality.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Population Health Strategic Research Centre, Deakin University, Geelong, Australia.

ABSTRACT

Objective: To estimate the impact of achieving alternative average population alcohol consumption levels on chronic disease mortality in England.

Design: A macro-simulation model was built to simultaneously estimate the number of deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke, hypertensive disease, diabetes, liver cirrhosis, epilepsy and five cancers that would be averted or delayed annually as a result of changes in alcohol consumption among English adults. Counterfactual scenarios assessed the impact on alcohol-related mortalities of changing (1) the median alcohol consumption of drinkers and (2) the percentage of non-drinkers.

Data sources: Risk relationships were drawn from published meta-analyses. Age- and sex-specific distributions of alcohol consumption (grams per day) for the English population in 2006 were drawn from the General Household Survey 2006, and age-, sex- and cause-specific mortality data for 2006 were provided by the Office for National Statistics.

Results: The optimum median consumption level for drinkers in the model was 5 g/day (about half a unit), which would avert or delay 4579 (2544 to 6590) deaths per year. Approximately equal numbers of deaths from cancers and liver disease would be delayed or averted (∼2800 for each), while there was a small increase in cardiovascular mortality. The model showed no benefit in terms of reduced mortality when the proportion of non-drinkers in the population was increased.

Conclusions: Current government recommendations for alcohol consumption are well above the level likely to minimise chronic disease. Public health targets should aim for a reduction in population alcohol consumption in order to reduce chronic disease mortality.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus