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Evaluation of risks of foot-and-mouth disease in Scotland to assist with decision making during the 2007 outbreak in the UK.

Volkova VV, Bessell PR, Woolhouse ME, Savill NJ - Vet. Rec. (2011)

Bottom Line: Tracing of livestock moved from within the risk zone in England between July 16 and August 3 identified contact chains to 12 Scottish premises; veterinary field inspections found a further three unrecorded movements.No signs of infection were found on these holdings.Risk maps were produced to visualise the potential spread of FMD across Scotland if it was to spread either locally or via market sales.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Ashworth Laboratories, King's Buildings, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JT. vv87@cornell.edu

ABSTRACT
An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) occurred in Surrey on August 3, 2007. A Great Britain-wide ban on livestock movements was implemented immediately. This coincided with the start of seasonal sheep movements off the hills in Scotland; the majority of these animals are sold via markets. The ban therefore posed severe economic and animal-welfare hardships if it was to last through September and beyond. The Scottish Government commissioned an analysis to assess the risk of re-opening markets given the uncertainty about whether FMD had entered Scotland. Tracing of livestock moved from within the risk zone in England between July 16 and August 3 identified contact chains to 12 Scottish premises; veterinary field inspections found a further three unrecorded movements. No signs of infection were found on these holdings. Under the conservative assumption that a single unknown Scottish holding was infected with FMD, an estimate of the time-dependent probability of Scotland being FMD free given no detection was made. Analyses indicated that if FMD was not detected by early to mid-September then it was highly probable that Scotland was FMD free. Risk maps were produced to visualise the potential spread of FMD across Scotland if it was to spread either locally or via market sales.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Distribution of sheep movements to the Scottish farms from (a) a northern market, (b) the Kelso ram sale, and (c) a southern market during August and September 2006
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Figure 1: Distribution of sheep movements to the Scottish farms from (a) a northern market, (b) the Kelso ram sale, and (c) a southern market during August and September 2006

Mentions: The spatial distributions of the sheep movements to Scottish farms from a northern market, a southern market and the Kelso ram sale during August and September 2006 are shown in Fig 1. From 180 to 850 farms received sheep from each of these markets. The median distance the sheep travelled was 43 km (mean=72.5 km), however, the distance travelled varied from 1 to 558 km, with an interquartile range of 78 km. Clearly, opening Scottish markets for trade during August and September poses a high risk of wide geographical spread of FMD if present in sheep in Scotland.


Evaluation of risks of foot-and-mouth disease in Scotland to assist with decision making during the 2007 outbreak in the UK.

Volkova VV, Bessell PR, Woolhouse ME, Savill NJ - Vet. Rec. (2011)

Distribution of sheep movements to the Scottish farms from (a) a northern market, (b) the Kelso ram sale, and (c) a southern market during August and September 2006
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License 1 - License 2
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3361954&req=5

Figure 1: Distribution of sheep movements to the Scottish farms from (a) a northern market, (b) the Kelso ram sale, and (c) a southern market during August and September 2006
Mentions: The spatial distributions of the sheep movements to Scottish farms from a northern market, a southern market and the Kelso ram sale during August and September 2006 are shown in Fig 1. From 180 to 850 farms received sheep from each of these markets. The median distance the sheep travelled was 43 km (mean=72.5 km), however, the distance travelled varied from 1 to 558 km, with an interquartile range of 78 km. Clearly, opening Scottish markets for trade during August and September poses a high risk of wide geographical spread of FMD if present in sheep in Scotland.

Bottom Line: Tracing of livestock moved from within the risk zone in England between July 16 and August 3 identified contact chains to 12 Scottish premises; veterinary field inspections found a further three unrecorded movements.No signs of infection were found on these holdings.Risk maps were produced to visualise the potential spread of FMD across Scotland if it was to spread either locally or via market sales.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Ashworth Laboratories, King's Buildings, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JT. vv87@cornell.edu

ABSTRACT
An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) occurred in Surrey on August 3, 2007. A Great Britain-wide ban on livestock movements was implemented immediately. This coincided with the start of seasonal sheep movements off the hills in Scotland; the majority of these animals are sold via markets. The ban therefore posed severe economic and animal-welfare hardships if it was to last through September and beyond. The Scottish Government commissioned an analysis to assess the risk of re-opening markets given the uncertainty about whether FMD had entered Scotland. Tracing of livestock moved from within the risk zone in England between July 16 and August 3 identified contact chains to 12 Scottish premises; veterinary field inspections found a further three unrecorded movements. No signs of infection were found on these holdings. Under the conservative assumption that a single unknown Scottish holding was infected with FMD, an estimate of the time-dependent probability of Scotland being FMD free given no detection was made. Analyses indicated that if FMD was not detected by early to mid-September then it was highly probable that Scotland was FMD free. Risk maps were produced to visualise the potential spread of FMD across Scotland if it was to spread either locally or via market sales.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus