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Eye-opening approach to norovirus surveillance.

Hulth A, Andersson Y, Hedlund KO, Andersson M - Emerging Infect. Dis. (2010)

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We suspect, however, that these numbers do not depict the true prevalence of norovirus infections in society... We therefore present a new approach to estimate the number of cases and spread of norovirus infections in the community... By analyzing the figure and investigating the statistical outcomes, we glimpse the prevalence of norovirus infections in society, as estimated by the search pattern... We found 3 striking insights... First, the onset of vomiting in the community precedes the onset of confirmed norovirus infections in healthcare settings... In 3 of the 4 full seasons investigated, this precedence was 1–4 weeks... Second, the curve for the Web queries shows much sharper increases and decreases than does the curve on the number of reported norovirus findings... Third, neither search behavior nor reporting of positive tests is driven by media for the winter vomiting disease (confirmed by a linear regression)... Other pathogens such as rotavirus, Salmonella spp., Staphylococcus aureus, and Bacillus cereus can cause vomiting... Usually in Sweden, rotavirus infections peak in late winter, and bacterial diseases have a minor incidence compared with norovirus... In our opinion, these other pathogens would not interfere with the interpretation of the results... With the Web queries, we get an additional surveillance system for the time of the year when few norovirus tests are conducted.

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Number of queries for *vomit* submitted to a medical Web site (A), number of laboratory-verified norovirus samples (B), with baselines and 99% prediction intervals, and number of media articles about winter vomiting disease (C) in Sweden, 2005–2010.
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Figure 1: Number of queries for *vomit* submitted to a medical Web site (A), number of laboratory-verified norovirus samples (B), with baselines and 99% prediction intervals, and number of media articles about winter vomiting disease (C) in Sweden, 2005–2010.

Mentions: For the time series on Web search queries and laboratory findings (Figure), we fitted harmonic functions on the half-year with no or little activity, defining baselines for each series (1,2). By performing this procedure, we can identify the onset of each activity that is assumed to occur when the level rises above the 99% prediction interval of the baseline. The week this increase occurs is shown in the Figure. The Figure also contains the number of media articles on winter vomiting disease provided by a search engine for news in Sweden (www.eniro.se/nyhetssok). By analyzing the figure and investigating the statistical outcomes, we glimpse the prevalence of norovirus infections in society, as estimated by the search pattern.


Eye-opening approach to norovirus surveillance.

Hulth A, Andersson Y, Hedlund KO, Andersson M - Emerging Infect. Dis. (2010)

Number of queries for *vomit* submitted to a medical Web site (A), number of laboratory-verified norovirus samples (B), with baselines and 99% prediction intervals, and number of media articles about winter vomiting disease (C) in Sweden, 2005–2010.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3298324&req=5

Figure 1: Number of queries for *vomit* submitted to a medical Web site (A), number of laboratory-verified norovirus samples (B), with baselines and 99% prediction intervals, and number of media articles about winter vomiting disease (C) in Sweden, 2005–2010.
Mentions: For the time series on Web search queries and laboratory findings (Figure), we fitted harmonic functions on the half-year with no or little activity, defining baselines for each series (1,2). By performing this procedure, we can identify the onset of each activity that is assumed to occur when the level rises above the 99% prediction interval of the baseline. The week this increase occurs is shown in the Figure. The Figure also contains the number of media articles on winter vomiting disease provided by a search engine for news in Sweden (www.eniro.se/nyhetssok). By analyzing the figure and investigating the statistical outcomes, we glimpse the prevalence of norovirus infections in society, as estimated by the search pattern.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

AUTOMATICALLY GENERATED EXCERPT
Please rate it.

We suspect, however, that these numbers do not depict the true prevalence of norovirus infections in society... We therefore present a new approach to estimate the number of cases and spread of norovirus infections in the community... By analyzing the figure and investigating the statistical outcomes, we glimpse the prevalence of norovirus infections in society, as estimated by the search pattern... We found 3 striking insights... First, the onset of vomiting in the community precedes the onset of confirmed norovirus infections in healthcare settings... In 3 of the 4 full seasons investigated, this precedence was 1–4 weeks... Second, the curve for the Web queries shows much sharper increases and decreases than does the curve on the number of reported norovirus findings... Third, neither search behavior nor reporting of positive tests is driven by media for the winter vomiting disease (confirmed by a linear regression)... Other pathogens such as rotavirus, Salmonella spp., Staphylococcus aureus, and Bacillus cereus can cause vomiting... Usually in Sweden, rotavirus infections peak in late winter, and bacterial diseases have a minor incidence compared with norovirus... In our opinion, these other pathogens would not interfere with the interpretation of the results... With the Web queries, we get an additional surveillance system for the time of the year when few norovirus tests are conducted.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus