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Evaluating temporal factors in combined interventions of workforce shift and school closure for mitigating the spread of influenza.

Zhang T, Fu X, Ma S, Xiao G, Wong L, Kwoh CK, Lees M, Lee GK, Hung T - PLoS ONE (2012)

Bottom Line: It is believed that combined interventions may be more effective than individual interventions in mitigating epidemic.To better understand the problem, we develop an individual-based simulation model running on top of contact networks based on real-life contact data in Singapore.The results of this study are useful to policy makers in deliberating and planning individual and combined interventions.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Institute of High Performance Computing, A*STAR, Singapore.

ABSTRACT

Background: It is believed that combined interventions may be more effective than individual interventions in mitigating epidemic. However there is a lack of quantitative studies on performance of the combination of individual interventions under different temporal settings.

Methodology/principal findings: To better understand the problem, we develop an individual-based simulation model running on top of contact networks based on real-life contact data in Singapore. We model and evaluate the spread of influenza epidemic with intervention strategies of workforce shift and its combination with school closure, and examine the impacts of temporal factors, namely the trigger threshold and the duration of an intervention. By comparing simulation results for intervention scenarios with different temporal factors, we find that combined interventions do not always outperform individual interventions and are more effective only when the duration is longer than 6 weeks or school closure is triggered at the 5% threshold; combined interventions may be more effective if school closure starts first when the duration is less than 4 weeks or workforce shift starts first when the duration is longer than 4 weeks.

Conclusions/significance: We therefore conclude that identifying the appropriate timing configuration is crucial for achieving optimal or near optimal performance in mitigating the spread of influenza epidemic. The results of this study are useful to policy makers in deliberating and planning individual and combined interventions.

Show MeSH

Related in: MedlinePlus

Total attack rate, peak daily incidence and peak attack day with hybrid control (R0 = 1.5; x-axis shows school closure's triggers, colored bar indicates workforce shift's triggers; in each row, duration = 2/4/6/8/10 weeks from left to right).
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pone-0032203-g010: Total attack rate, peak daily incidence and peak attack day with hybrid control (R0 = 1.5; x-axis shows school closure's triggers, colored bar indicates workforce shift's triggers; in each row, duration = 2/4/6/8/10 weeks from left to right).

Mentions: The results of temporal effects in the combined interventions of school closure and workforce shift are based on R0 = 1.9. To examine if our conclusions hold for other R0 values, we tested on different cases where R0 = 1.5 and 2.3. Similar to Figure 9, Figures 10 and 11 show the effectiveness of the combined interventions at different pairs of thresholds and durations for R0 = 1.5 and 2.3 respectively.


Evaluating temporal factors in combined interventions of workforce shift and school closure for mitigating the spread of influenza.

Zhang T, Fu X, Ma S, Xiao G, Wong L, Kwoh CK, Lees M, Lee GK, Hung T - PLoS ONE (2012)

Total attack rate, peak daily incidence and peak attack day with hybrid control (R0 = 1.5; x-axis shows school closure's triggers, colored bar indicates workforce shift's triggers; in each row, duration = 2/4/6/8/10 weeks from left to right).
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3293885&req=5

pone-0032203-g010: Total attack rate, peak daily incidence and peak attack day with hybrid control (R0 = 1.5; x-axis shows school closure's triggers, colored bar indicates workforce shift's triggers; in each row, duration = 2/4/6/8/10 weeks from left to right).
Mentions: The results of temporal effects in the combined interventions of school closure and workforce shift are based on R0 = 1.9. To examine if our conclusions hold for other R0 values, we tested on different cases where R0 = 1.5 and 2.3. Similar to Figure 9, Figures 10 and 11 show the effectiveness of the combined interventions at different pairs of thresholds and durations for R0 = 1.5 and 2.3 respectively.

Bottom Line: It is believed that combined interventions may be more effective than individual interventions in mitigating epidemic.To better understand the problem, we develop an individual-based simulation model running on top of contact networks based on real-life contact data in Singapore.The results of this study are useful to policy makers in deliberating and planning individual and combined interventions.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Institute of High Performance Computing, A*STAR, Singapore.

ABSTRACT

Background: It is believed that combined interventions may be more effective than individual interventions in mitigating epidemic. However there is a lack of quantitative studies on performance of the combination of individual interventions under different temporal settings.

Methodology/principal findings: To better understand the problem, we develop an individual-based simulation model running on top of contact networks based on real-life contact data in Singapore. We model and evaluate the spread of influenza epidemic with intervention strategies of workforce shift and its combination with school closure, and examine the impacts of temporal factors, namely the trigger threshold and the duration of an intervention. By comparing simulation results for intervention scenarios with different temporal factors, we find that combined interventions do not always outperform individual interventions and are more effective only when the duration is longer than 6 weeks or school closure is triggered at the 5% threshold; combined interventions may be more effective if school closure starts first when the duration is less than 4 weeks or workforce shift starts first when the duration is longer than 4 weeks.

Conclusions/significance: We therefore conclude that identifying the appropriate timing configuration is crucial for achieving optimal or near optimal performance in mitigating the spread of influenza epidemic. The results of this study are useful to policy makers in deliberating and planning individual and combined interventions.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus