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Assessing trends and predictors of tuberculosis in Taiwan.

Liao CM, Hsieh NH, Huang TL, Cheng YH, Lin YJ, Chio CP, Chen SC, Ling MP - BMC Public Health (2012)

Bottom Line: The generalized regression models were used to examine the potential predictors for the monthly TB incidence in regional and national scales.We found that (i) in Taiwan the average TB incidence was 68 per 100,000 population with mortality rate of 0.036 person-1 yr-1, (ii) the highest TB incidence rate was found in eastern Taiwan (116 per 100,000 population) with the largest proportion of TB relapse cases (8.17%), (iii) seasonality, aborigines, gender, and age had a consistent and dominant role in constructing TB incidence patterns in Taiwan, and (iv) gender, time trend, and 2-month lag maximum temperature showed strong association with TB trends in aboriginal subpopulations.The proposed Poisson regression model is capable of forecasting patterns of TB incidence at regional and national scales.

View Article: PubMed Central - HTML - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan 10617, Republic of China. cmliao@ntu.edu.tw

ABSTRACT

Background: Variety of environmental and individual factors can cause tuberculosis (TB) incidence change. The purpose of this study was to assess the characteristics of TB trends in the period 2004 - 2008 in Taiwan by month, year, gender, age, temperature, seasonality, and aborigines.

Methods: The generalized regression models were used to examine the potential predictors for the monthly TB incidence in regional and national scales.

Results: We found that (i) in Taiwan the average TB incidence was 68 per 100,000 population with mortality rate of 0.036 person-1 yr-1, (ii) the highest TB incidence rate was found in eastern Taiwan (116 per 100,000 population) with the largest proportion of TB relapse cases (8.17%), (iii) seasonality, aborigines, gender, and age had a consistent and dominant role in constructing TB incidence patterns in Taiwan, and (iv) gender, time trend, and 2-month lag maximum temperature showed strong association with TB trends in aboriginal subpopulations.

Conclusions: The proposed Poisson regression model is capable of forecasting patterns of TB incidence at regional and national scales. This study suggested that assessment of TB trends in eastern Taiwan presents an important opportunity for understanding the time-series dynamics and control of TB infections, given that this is the typical host demography in regions where these infections remain major public health problems.

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Significant factors (p-value) on TB trends data of aborigines in (a) Hwalien and (b) Taitung. Significant factors for gender-specific TB trends data in (c) Hwalien and (d) Taitung.
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Figure 5: Significant factors (p-value) on TB trends data of aborigines in (a) Hwalien and (b) Taitung. Significant factors for gender-specific TB trends data in (c) Hwalien and (d) Taitung.

Mentions: To understand the impacts of subpopulation of aborigine and gender on TB trends in Hwalien and Taitung Counties, we fitted Poisson regression models (Eqs. (T3) and (T6); Table 3) to TB incidence data of aborigines and gender, respectively (Figure 44). Results show that Poisson regression models were significantly fitted the aborigine data in Hwalien County (r = 0.48; p < 0.001) and in Taitung County (r = 0.55; p < 0.001) (Figure 4a, b). Meanwhile, male had significant effect on TB incidence trends in Hwalien County (r = 0.51; p < 0.001), whereas TB trends in Taitung County influenced significantly by female effect (r = 0.42; p < 0.001) (Figure 4c, f). The individual impact of factors on TB trends data of aborigines and gender were illustrated in Figure 5 Significant impacts of gender, time trend, and 2-month lag maximum temperature on aborigine TB trends and only time trends effects on female TB incidence in Taitung County were found (Figure 5b, d).


Assessing trends and predictors of tuberculosis in Taiwan.

Liao CM, Hsieh NH, Huang TL, Cheng YH, Lin YJ, Chio CP, Chen SC, Ling MP - BMC Public Health (2012)

Significant factors (p-value) on TB trends data of aborigines in (a) Hwalien and (b) Taitung. Significant factors for gender-specific TB trends data in (c) Hwalien and (d) Taitung.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3285518&req=5

Figure 5: Significant factors (p-value) on TB trends data of aborigines in (a) Hwalien and (b) Taitung. Significant factors for gender-specific TB trends data in (c) Hwalien and (d) Taitung.
Mentions: To understand the impacts of subpopulation of aborigine and gender on TB trends in Hwalien and Taitung Counties, we fitted Poisson regression models (Eqs. (T3) and (T6); Table 3) to TB incidence data of aborigines and gender, respectively (Figure 44). Results show that Poisson regression models were significantly fitted the aborigine data in Hwalien County (r = 0.48; p < 0.001) and in Taitung County (r = 0.55; p < 0.001) (Figure 4a, b). Meanwhile, male had significant effect on TB incidence trends in Hwalien County (r = 0.51; p < 0.001), whereas TB trends in Taitung County influenced significantly by female effect (r = 0.42; p < 0.001) (Figure 4c, f). The individual impact of factors on TB trends data of aborigines and gender were illustrated in Figure 5 Significant impacts of gender, time trend, and 2-month lag maximum temperature on aborigine TB trends and only time trends effects on female TB incidence in Taitung County were found (Figure 5b, d).

Bottom Line: The generalized regression models were used to examine the potential predictors for the monthly TB incidence in regional and national scales.We found that (i) in Taiwan the average TB incidence was 68 per 100,000 population with mortality rate of 0.036 person-1 yr-1, (ii) the highest TB incidence rate was found in eastern Taiwan (116 per 100,000 population) with the largest proportion of TB relapse cases (8.17%), (iii) seasonality, aborigines, gender, and age had a consistent and dominant role in constructing TB incidence patterns in Taiwan, and (iv) gender, time trend, and 2-month lag maximum temperature showed strong association with TB trends in aboriginal subpopulations.The proposed Poisson regression model is capable of forecasting patterns of TB incidence at regional and national scales.

View Article: PubMed Central - HTML - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan 10617, Republic of China. cmliao@ntu.edu.tw

ABSTRACT

Background: Variety of environmental and individual factors can cause tuberculosis (TB) incidence change. The purpose of this study was to assess the characteristics of TB trends in the period 2004 - 2008 in Taiwan by month, year, gender, age, temperature, seasonality, and aborigines.

Methods: The generalized regression models were used to examine the potential predictors for the monthly TB incidence in regional and national scales.

Results: We found that (i) in Taiwan the average TB incidence was 68 per 100,000 population with mortality rate of 0.036 person-1 yr-1, (ii) the highest TB incidence rate was found in eastern Taiwan (116 per 100,000 population) with the largest proportion of TB relapse cases (8.17%), (iii) seasonality, aborigines, gender, and age had a consistent and dominant role in constructing TB incidence patterns in Taiwan, and (iv) gender, time trend, and 2-month lag maximum temperature showed strong association with TB trends in aboriginal subpopulations.

Conclusions: The proposed Poisson regression model is capable of forecasting patterns of TB incidence at regional and national scales. This study suggested that assessment of TB trends in eastern Taiwan presents an important opportunity for understanding the time-series dynamics and control of TB infections, given that this is the typical host demography in regions where these infections remain major public health problems.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus