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Climate change threatens European conservation areas.

Araújo MB, Alagador D, Cabeza M, Nogués-Bravo D, Thuiller W - Ecol. Lett. (2011)

Bottom Line: Conservation areas are selected without taking into account the effects of climate change.How effectively would such areas conserve biodiversity under climate change?Protected areas are expected to retain climatic suitability for species better than unprotected areas (P < 0.001), but Natura 2000 areas retain climate suitability for species no better and sometimes less effectively than unprotected areas.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology, National Museum of Natural Sciences, CSIC, 28006, Madrid, Spain. maraujo@mncn.csic.es

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Distribution of non-analogue climates in 2080 under the A1FI emission scenario. For each variable (mean temperature of the coldest month, mean annual summed precipitation, mean annual growing degree days, and the ratio of mean annual actual evapotranspiration over mean annual potential evapotranspiration), non-analogue climates are defined as those exceeding the highest and lowest values recorded for the baseline. Colours indicate ‘richness’ of non-analogue climates, i.e. the summed occurrence of non-analogue climates for each variable, where increasing gradients of red indicate increased richness of non-analogue climates and white cells indicate absence of non-analogue climates.
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fig04: Distribution of non-analogue climates in 2080 under the A1FI emission scenario. For each variable (mean temperature of the coldest month, mean annual summed precipitation, mean annual growing degree days, and the ratio of mean annual actual evapotranspiration over mean annual potential evapotranspiration), non-analogue climates are defined as those exceeding the highest and lowest values recorded for the baseline. Colours indicate ‘richness’ of non-analogue climates, i.e. the summed occurrence of non-analogue climates for each variable, where increasing gradients of red indicate increased richness of non-analogue climates and white cells indicate absence of non-analogue climates.

Mentions: Uncertainties from extrapolating beyond the climatic values used for calibration of the models are restricted to southern Europe, particularly the Iberian Peninsula (Fig. 4), thus not affecting the robustness of the results in most of Europe.


Climate change threatens European conservation areas.

Araújo MB, Alagador D, Cabeza M, Nogués-Bravo D, Thuiller W - Ecol. Lett. (2011)

Distribution of non-analogue climates in 2080 under the A1FI emission scenario. For each variable (mean temperature of the coldest month, mean annual summed precipitation, mean annual growing degree days, and the ratio of mean annual actual evapotranspiration over mean annual potential evapotranspiration), non-analogue climates are defined as those exceeding the highest and lowest values recorded for the baseline. Colours indicate ‘richness’ of non-analogue climates, i.e. the summed occurrence of non-analogue climates for each variable, where increasing gradients of red indicate increased richness of non-analogue climates and white cells indicate absence of non-analogue climates.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3116148&req=5

fig04: Distribution of non-analogue climates in 2080 under the A1FI emission scenario. For each variable (mean temperature of the coldest month, mean annual summed precipitation, mean annual growing degree days, and the ratio of mean annual actual evapotranspiration over mean annual potential evapotranspiration), non-analogue climates are defined as those exceeding the highest and lowest values recorded for the baseline. Colours indicate ‘richness’ of non-analogue climates, i.e. the summed occurrence of non-analogue climates for each variable, where increasing gradients of red indicate increased richness of non-analogue climates and white cells indicate absence of non-analogue climates.
Mentions: Uncertainties from extrapolating beyond the climatic values used for calibration of the models are restricted to southern Europe, particularly the Iberian Peninsula (Fig. 4), thus not affecting the robustness of the results in most of Europe.

Bottom Line: Conservation areas are selected without taking into account the effects of climate change.How effectively would such areas conserve biodiversity under climate change?Protected areas are expected to retain climatic suitability for species better than unprotected areas (P < 0.001), but Natura 2000 areas retain climate suitability for species no better and sometimes less effectively than unprotected areas.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology, National Museum of Natural Sciences, CSIC, 28006, Madrid, Spain. maraujo@mncn.csic.es

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus