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Climate change threatens European conservation areas.

Araújo MB, Alagador D, Cabeza M, Nogués-Bravo D, Thuiller W - Ecol. Lett. (2011)

Bottom Line: Conservation areas are selected without taking into account the effects of climate change.How effectively would such areas conserve biodiversity under climate change?Protected areas are expected to retain climatic suitability for species better than unprotected areas (P < 0.001), but Natura 2000 areas retain climate suitability for species no better and sometimes less effectively than unprotected areas.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology, National Museum of Natural Sciences, CSIC, 28006, Madrid, Spain. maraujo@mncn.csic.es

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Vulnerability of cold-adapted vs. warm-adapted Bird & Habitat Directive species occurring in Natura 2000 areas: (a) overlay between richness of cold-adapted loser and winner species; (b) overlay between richness of warm-adapted loser and winner species. Scores on the maps are divided into 10 equal-interval colour classes, where increasing intensities of blue represent increasing numbers of loser species and increasing intensities of green represent increasing number of winner species; shades of grey represent linearly covarying scores between winners and losers; (c) Frequency distribution of the range sizes (number of grid cells occupied) of cold-adapted (empty bars) and warm-adapted loser species (dark bars) (W = 1530, P < 0.001); (d) Frequency distribution of range sizes of cold-adapted (empty bars) and warm-adapted winner species (dark bars) (W = 3, P = 0.100).
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fig03: Vulnerability of cold-adapted vs. warm-adapted Bird & Habitat Directive species occurring in Natura 2000 areas: (a) overlay between richness of cold-adapted loser and winner species; (b) overlay between richness of warm-adapted loser and winner species. Scores on the maps are divided into 10 equal-interval colour classes, where increasing intensities of blue represent increasing numbers of loser species and increasing intensities of green represent increasing number of winner species; shades of grey represent linearly covarying scores between winners and losers; (c) Frequency distribution of the range sizes (number of grid cells occupied) of cold-adapted (empty bars) and warm-adapted loser species (dark bars) (W = 1530, P < 0.001); (d) Frequency distribution of range sizes of cold-adapted (empty bars) and warm-adapted winner species (dark bars) (W = 3, P = 0.100).

Mentions: A geographical analysis reveals that loser species are predominant over winners across most protected and Natura 2000 areas. Higher proportion of winner species is projected in conservation areas of northern Scandinavia and Britain and in mountains such as the Alps, the Pyrenees and the Carpathians (Fig. 2). A country-by-country analysis reveals that all but two countries (Finland and Sweden) have more loser than winner species in Natura 2000 sites (Fig. 2, Table S3). The number of countries with a higher ratio between winners and losers is greater for protected areas than for Natura 2000, but the general tendency is for increased numbers of winners in the colder edges of Europe (Fig. 2). As expected, differences in thermal tolerance play a major role in accounting for the excesses of winners over losers in these areas. Many warm-tolerant species exist in high latitudes and altitudes and these will gain climatic suitability with climate warming, but the overwhelming majority of alpine and sub-arctic species of European concern (i.e. 97.2%) are projected to lose suitability (Fig. 3). Indeed, because such cold-adapted species have smaller ranges (range sizes at quartiles 25% = 35.5, 50% = 135.5, 75% = 260) than warm-adapted species (25% = 366; 50% = 1706; 75% = 2214), they are exposed to the double jeopardy of being rare and more negatively affected by climate change (Fig. 3).


Climate change threatens European conservation areas.

Araújo MB, Alagador D, Cabeza M, Nogués-Bravo D, Thuiller W - Ecol. Lett. (2011)

Vulnerability of cold-adapted vs. warm-adapted Bird & Habitat Directive species occurring in Natura 2000 areas: (a) overlay between richness of cold-adapted loser and winner species; (b) overlay between richness of warm-adapted loser and winner species. Scores on the maps are divided into 10 equal-interval colour classes, where increasing intensities of blue represent increasing numbers of loser species and increasing intensities of green represent increasing number of winner species; shades of grey represent linearly covarying scores between winners and losers; (c) Frequency distribution of the range sizes (number of grid cells occupied) of cold-adapted (empty bars) and warm-adapted loser species (dark bars) (W = 1530, P < 0.001); (d) Frequency distribution of range sizes of cold-adapted (empty bars) and warm-adapted winner species (dark bars) (W = 3, P = 0.100).
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3116148&req=5

fig03: Vulnerability of cold-adapted vs. warm-adapted Bird & Habitat Directive species occurring in Natura 2000 areas: (a) overlay between richness of cold-adapted loser and winner species; (b) overlay between richness of warm-adapted loser and winner species. Scores on the maps are divided into 10 equal-interval colour classes, where increasing intensities of blue represent increasing numbers of loser species and increasing intensities of green represent increasing number of winner species; shades of grey represent linearly covarying scores between winners and losers; (c) Frequency distribution of the range sizes (number of grid cells occupied) of cold-adapted (empty bars) and warm-adapted loser species (dark bars) (W = 1530, P < 0.001); (d) Frequency distribution of range sizes of cold-adapted (empty bars) and warm-adapted winner species (dark bars) (W = 3, P = 0.100).
Mentions: A geographical analysis reveals that loser species are predominant over winners across most protected and Natura 2000 areas. Higher proportion of winner species is projected in conservation areas of northern Scandinavia and Britain and in mountains such as the Alps, the Pyrenees and the Carpathians (Fig. 2). A country-by-country analysis reveals that all but two countries (Finland and Sweden) have more loser than winner species in Natura 2000 sites (Fig. 2, Table S3). The number of countries with a higher ratio between winners and losers is greater for protected areas than for Natura 2000, but the general tendency is for increased numbers of winners in the colder edges of Europe (Fig. 2). As expected, differences in thermal tolerance play a major role in accounting for the excesses of winners over losers in these areas. Many warm-tolerant species exist in high latitudes and altitudes and these will gain climatic suitability with climate warming, but the overwhelming majority of alpine and sub-arctic species of European concern (i.e. 97.2%) are projected to lose suitability (Fig. 3). Indeed, because such cold-adapted species have smaller ranges (range sizes at quartiles 25% = 35.5, 50% = 135.5, 75% = 260) than warm-adapted species (25% = 366; 50% = 1706; 75% = 2214), they are exposed to the double jeopardy of being rare and more negatively affected by climate change (Fig. 3).

Bottom Line: Conservation areas are selected without taking into account the effects of climate change.How effectively would such areas conserve biodiversity under climate change?Protected areas are expected to retain climatic suitability for species better than unprotected areas (P < 0.001), but Natura 2000 areas retain climate suitability for species no better and sometimes less effectively than unprotected areas.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology, National Museum of Natural Sciences, CSIC, 28006, Madrid, Spain. maraujo@mncn.csic.es

Show MeSH