Limits...
Current models broadly neglect specific needs of biodiversity conservation in protected areas under climate change.

Sieck M, Ibisch PL, Moloney KA, Jeltsch F - BMC Ecol. (2011)

Bottom Line: The general impression that emerges is that biodiversity conservation in protected areas could benefit from the application of modern modeling approaches to a greater extent than is currently reflected in the scientific literature.It is particularly true that existing models have been underutilized in testing different management options under climate change.Based on these findings we suggest a strategic framework for more effectively incorporating the impact of climate change in models exploring the effectiveness of protected areas.

View Article: PubMed Central - HTML - PubMed

Affiliation: Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, University of Potsdam, Maulbeerallee 3, Potsdam, Germany. msieck@uni-potsdam.de

ABSTRACT

Background: Protected areas are the most common and important instrument for the conservation of biological diversity and are called for under the United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity. Growing human population densities, intensified land-use, invasive species and increasing habitat fragmentation threaten ecosystems worldwide and protected areas are often the only refuge for endangered species. Climate change is posing an additional threat that may also impact ecosystems currently under protection. Therefore, it is of crucial importance to include the potential impact of climate change when designing future nature conservation strategies and implementing protected area management. This approach would go beyond reactive crisis management and, by necessity, would include anticipatory risk assessments. One avenue for doing so is being provided by simulation models that take advantage of the increase in computing capacity and performance that has occurred over the last two decades.Here we review the literature to determine the state-of-the-art in modeling terrestrial protected areas under climate change, with the aim of evaluating and detecting trends and gaps in the current approaches being employed, as well as to provide a useful overview and guidelines for future research.

Results: Most studies apply statistical, bioclimatic envelope models and focus primarily on plant species as compared to other taxa. Very few studies utilize a mechanistic, process-based approach and none examine biotic interactions like predation and competition. Important factors like land-use, habitat fragmentation, invasion and dispersal are rarely incorporated, restricting the informative value of the resulting predictions considerably.

Conclusion: The general impression that emerges is that biodiversity conservation in protected areas could benefit from the application of modern modeling approaches to a greater extent than is currently reflected in the scientific literature. It is particularly true that existing models have been underutilized in testing different management options under climate change. Based on these findings we suggest a strategic framework for more effectively incorporating the impact of climate change in models exploring the effectiveness of protected areas.

Show MeSH

Related in: MedlinePlus

Publication rate of articles that deal with modeling of protected areas under climate change. Dark columns: all articles found under the applied search algorithm for the time span 1998 to June 2010; light columns: subset of articles included in this review.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3108268&req=5

Figure 1: Publication rate of articles that deal with modeling of protected areas under climate change. Dark columns: all articles found under the applied search algorithm for the time span 1998 to June 2010; light columns: subset of articles included in this review.

Mentions: Our literature search using ISI Web of Knowledge produced 394 hits. Forty three of the articles were focused on marine, aquatic or hydrologically related topics and were therefore not included. Other studies were excluded since they only discussed the potential impacts of climate change and did not simulate different scenarios or consider their implications. Many of the remaining studies simulated shifts in species distributions under changing climate, but did not explicitly focus on protected areas. In the end, 32 studies were used as they fulfilled all three criteria for inclusion as described in the methods. Despite the small body of literature, there is evidence for increasing interest in the impacts of climate change on protected areas over the last 10 years (Figure 1).


Current models broadly neglect specific needs of biodiversity conservation in protected areas under climate change.

Sieck M, Ibisch PL, Moloney KA, Jeltsch F - BMC Ecol. (2011)

Publication rate of articles that deal with modeling of protected areas under climate change. Dark columns: all articles found under the applied search algorithm for the time span 1998 to June 2010; light columns: subset of articles included in this review.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3108268&req=5

Figure 1: Publication rate of articles that deal with modeling of protected areas under climate change. Dark columns: all articles found under the applied search algorithm for the time span 1998 to June 2010; light columns: subset of articles included in this review.
Mentions: Our literature search using ISI Web of Knowledge produced 394 hits. Forty three of the articles were focused on marine, aquatic or hydrologically related topics and were therefore not included. Other studies were excluded since they only discussed the potential impacts of climate change and did not simulate different scenarios or consider their implications. Many of the remaining studies simulated shifts in species distributions under changing climate, but did not explicitly focus on protected areas. In the end, 32 studies were used as they fulfilled all three criteria for inclusion as described in the methods. Despite the small body of literature, there is evidence for increasing interest in the impacts of climate change on protected areas over the last 10 years (Figure 1).

Bottom Line: The general impression that emerges is that biodiversity conservation in protected areas could benefit from the application of modern modeling approaches to a greater extent than is currently reflected in the scientific literature.It is particularly true that existing models have been underutilized in testing different management options under climate change.Based on these findings we suggest a strategic framework for more effectively incorporating the impact of climate change in models exploring the effectiveness of protected areas.

View Article: PubMed Central - HTML - PubMed

Affiliation: Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, University of Potsdam, Maulbeerallee 3, Potsdam, Germany. msieck@uni-potsdam.de

ABSTRACT

Background: Protected areas are the most common and important instrument for the conservation of biological diversity and are called for under the United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity. Growing human population densities, intensified land-use, invasive species and increasing habitat fragmentation threaten ecosystems worldwide and protected areas are often the only refuge for endangered species. Climate change is posing an additional threat that may also impact ecosystems currently under protection. Therefore, it is of crucial importance to include the potential impact of climate change when designing future nature conservation strategies and implementing protected area management. This approach would go beyond reactive crisis management and, by necessity, would include anticipatory risk assessments. One avenue for doing so is being provided by simulation models that take advantage of the increase in computing capacity and performance that has occurred over the last two decades.Here we review the literature to determine the state-of-the-art in modeling terrestrial protected areas under climate change, with the aim of evaluating and detecting trends and gaps in the current approaches being employed, as well as to provide a useful overview and guidelines for future research.

Results: Most studies apply statistical, bioclimatic envelope models and focus primarily on plant species as compared to other taxa. Very few studies utilize a mechanistic, process-based approach and none examine biotic interactions like predation and competition. Important factors like land-use, habitat fragmentation, invasion and dispersal are rarely incorporated, restricting the informative value of the resulting predictions considerably.

Conclusion: The general impression that emerges is that biodiversity conservation in protected areas could benefit from the application of modern modeling approaches to a greater extent than is currently reflected in the scientific literature. It is particularly true that existing models have been underutilized in testing different management options under climate change. Based on these findings we suggest a strategic framework for more effectively incorporating the impact of climate change in models exploring the effectiveness of protected areas.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus