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Spatial multicriteria decision analysis of flood risks in aging-dam management in China: a framework and case study.

Yang M, Qian X, Zhang Y, Sheng J, Shen D, Ge Y - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2011)

Bottom Line: Approximately 30,000 dams in China are aging and are considered to be high-level risks.Based on the theories of spatial multicriteria decision analysis, this report generalizes a framework consisting of scenario definition, problem structuring, criteria construction, spatial quantification of criteria, criteria weighting, decision rules, sensitivity analyses, and scenario appraisal.With adjustments and improvement to the specific methods (according to the circumstances and available data) this framework may be applied to other sites.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210046, China. yngjyangmeng@gmail.com

ABSTRACT
Approximately 30,000 dams in China are aging and are considered to be high-level risks. Developing a framework for analyzing spatial multicriteria flood risk is crucial to ranking management scenarios for these dams, especially in densely populated areas. Based on the theories of spatial multicriteria decision analysis, this report generalizes a framework consisting of scenario definition, problem structuring, criteria construction, spatial quantification of criteria, criteria weighting, decision rules, sensitivity analyses, and scenario appraisal. The framework is presented in detail by using a case study to rank dam rehabilitation, decommissioning and existing-condition scenarios. The results show that there was a serious inundation, and that a dam rehabilitation scenario could reduce the multicriteria flood risk by 0.25 in the most affected areas; this indicates a mean risk decrease of less than 23%. Although increased risk (<0.20) was found for some residential and commercial buildings, if the dam were to be decommissioned, the mean risk would not be greater than the current existing risk, indicating that the dam rehabilitation scenario had a higher rank for decreasing the flood risk than the decommissioning scenario, but that dam rehabilitation alone might be of little help in abating flood risk. With adjustments and improvement to the specific methods (according to the circumstances and available data) this framework may be applied to other sites.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Comparison of multicriteria flood-risk averaged over different distances to the dam site among three scenarios.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

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f9-ijerph-08-01368: Comparison of multicriteria flood-risk averaged over different distances to the dam site among three scenarios.

Mentions: In the dam decommissioning scenario, the mean risk near the dam site (e.g., at a distance of less than 2 km; Figure 9) was larger than the risk under existing conditions as a result of the increased risk to residential and commercial buildings (Figure 8a). As the distance to the dam site increased, the mean flood risk decreased (as compared with the existing conditions). The dam rehabilitation scenario always had a smaller mean risk, even in areas less than 1 km downstream of the dam site (Figure 9).


Spatial multicriteria decision analysis of flood risks in aging-dam management in China: a framework and case study.

Yang M, Qian X, Zhang Y, Sheng J, Shen D, Ge Y - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2011)

Comparison of multicriteria flood-risk averaged over different distances to the dam site among three scenarios.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License 1 - License 2
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3108115&req=5

f9-ijerph-08-01368: Comparison of multicriteria flood-risk averaged over different distances to the dam site among three scenarios.
Mentions: In the dam decommissioning scenario, the mean risk near the dam site (e.g., at a distance of less than 2 km; Figure 9) was larger than the risk under existing conditions as a result of the increased risk to residential and commercial buildings (Figure 8a). As the distance to the dam site increased, the mean flood risk decreased (as compared with the existing conditions). The dam rehabilitation scenario always had a smaller mean risk, even in areas less than 1 km downstream of the dam site (Figure 9).

Bottom Line: Approximately 30,000 dams in China are aging and are considered to be high-level risks.Based on the theories of spatial multicriteria decision analysis, this report generalizes a framework consisting of scenario definition, problem structuring, criteria construction, spatial quantification of criteria, criteria weighting, decision rules, sensitivity analyses, and scenario appraisal.With adjustments and improvement to the specific methods (according to the circumstances and available data) this framework may be applied to other sites.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210046, China. yngjyangmeng@gmail.com

ABSTRACT
Approximately 30,000 dams in China are aging and are considered to be high-level risks. Developing a framework for analyzing spatial multicriteria flood risk is crucial to ranking management scenarios for these dams, especially in densely populated areas. Based on the theories of spatial multicriteria decision analysis, this report generalizes a framework consisting of scenario definition, problem structuring, criteria construction, spatial quantification of criteria, criteria weighting, decision rules, sensitivity analyses, and scenario appraisal. The framework is presented in detail by using a case study to rank dam rehabilitation, decommissioning and existing-condition scenarios. The results show that there was a serious inundation, and that a dam rehabilitation scenario could reduce the multicriteria flood risk by 0.25 in the most affected areas; this indicates a mean risk decrease of less than 23%. Although increased risk (<0.20) was found for some residential and commercial buildings, if the dam were to be decommissioned, the mean risk would not be greater than the current existing risk, indicating that the dam rehabilitation scenario had a higher rank for decreasing the flood risk than the decommissioning scenario, but that dam rehabilitation alone might be of little help in abating flood risk. With adjustments and improvement to the specific methods (according to the circumstances and available data) this framework may be applied to other sites.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus