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Seasonality of human leptospirosis in Reunion Island (Indian Ocean) and its association with meteorological data.

Desvars A, Jégo S, Chiroleu F, Bourhy P, Cardinale E, Michault A - PLoS ONE (2011)

Bottom Line: Six hundred and thirteen cases were reported during the 11-year study period, and 359 cases (58.56%) were diagnosed between February and May.A significant correlation was identified between the number of cases in a given month and the associated cumulated rainfall as well as the mean monthly temperature recorded 2 months prior to diagnosis (r = 0.28 and r = 0.23 respectively).Meteorological data can be used to predict the occurrence of the disease and our statistical model can help to implement seasonal prevention measures.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Unité Mixte de Recherche Contrôle des Maladies Animales Exotiques et Emergentes, Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, Sainte-Clotilde, La Réunion, France. amelie.desvars@cirad.fr

ABSTRACT

Background: Leptospirosis is a disease which occurs worldwide but particularly affects tropical areas. Transmission of the disease is dependent on its excretion by reservoir animals and the presence of moist environment which allows the survival of the bacteria.

Methods and findings: A retrospective study was undertaken to describe seasonal patterns of human leptospirosis cases reported by the Centre National de Références des Leptospiroses (CNRL, Pasteur Institute, Paris) between 1998 and 2008, to determine if there was an association between the occurrence of diagnosed cases and rainfall, temperature and global solar radiation (GSR). Meteorological data were recorded in the town of Saint-Benoît (Météo France "Beaufonds-Miria" station), located on the windward (East) coast. Time-series analysis was used to identify the variables that best described and predicted the occurrence of cases of leptospirosis on the island. Six hundred and thirteen cases were reported during the 11-year study period, and 359 cases (58.56%) were diagnosed between February and May. A significant correlation was identified between the number of cases in a given month and the associated cumulated rainfall as well as the mean monthly temperature recorded 2 months prior to diagnosis (r = 0.28 and r = 0.23 respectively). The predictive model includes the number of cases of leptospirosis recorded 1 month prior to diagnosis (b = 0.193), the cumulated monthly rainfall recorded 2 months prior to diagnosis (b = 0.145), the average monthly temperature recorded 0 month prior to diagnosis (b = 3.836), and the average monthly GSR recorded 0 month prior to diagnosis (b = -1.293).

Conclusions: Leptospirosis has a seasonal distribution in Reunion Island. Meteorological data can be used to predict the occurrence of the disease and our statistical model can help to implement seasonal prevention measures.

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Annual rainfall in Reunion Island (from [21]).Isohyetal lines and location of the Météo France meteorological Beaufonds-Miria station.
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pone-0020377-g001: Annual rainfall in Reunion Island (from [21]).Isohyetal lines and location of the Météo France meteorological Beaufonds-Miria station.

Mentions: The island is situated in the south-west Indian Ocean at 55°30′ East and 21°05′ South. It is 800 km East of Madagascar. The island is part of the Mascareignes archipelago and covers 2,510 km2 [21]. According to the 2006 census [22], Reunion Island has 781,962 inhabitants, with a population density of 312.3 people per km2. The population is concentrated in coastal towns, while the south-eastern area containing the Piton de la Fournaise volcano is sparsely populated [22]. The climate is tropical and temperatures are the highest from January to March, with a cool season between July and September. The eastern coast (or “windward” coast), has rainfall of around 2,000 mm per year, whereas the western coast (or “leeward” coast), has an annual rainfall of less than 2,000 mm (Figure 1) [21].


Seasonality of human leptospirosis in Reunion Island (Indian Ocean) and its association with meteorological data.

Desvars A, Jégo S, Chiroleu F, Bourhy P, Cardinale E, Michault A - PLoS ONE (2011)

Annual rainfall in Reunion Island (from [21]).Isohyetal lines and location of the Météo France meteorological Beaufonds-Miria station.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3105052&req=5

pone-0020377-g001: Annual rainfall in Reunion Island (from [21]).Isohyetal lines and location of the Météo France meteorological Beaufonds-Miria station.
Mentions: The island is situated in the south-west Indian Ocean at 55°30′ East and 21°05′ South. It is 800 km East of Madagascar. The island is part of the Mascareignes archipelago and covers 2,510 km2 [21]. According to the 2006 census [22], Reunion Island has 781,962 inhabitants, with a population density of 312.3 people per km2. The population is concentrated in coastal towns, while the south-eastern area containing the Piton de la Fournaise volcano is sparsely populated [22]. The climate is tropical and temperatures are the highest from January to March, with a cool season between July and September. The eastern coast (or “windward” coast), has rainfall of around 2,000 mm per year, whereas the western coast (or “leeward” coast), has an annual rainfall of less than 2,000 mm (Figure 1) [21].

Bottom Line: Six hundred and thirteen cases were reported during the 11-year study period, and 359 cases (58.56%) were diagnosed between February and May.A significant correlation was identified between the number of cases in a given month and the associated cumulated rainfall as well as the mean monthly temperature recorded 2 months prior to diagnosis (r = 0.28 and r = 0.23 respectively).Meteorological data can be used to predict the occurrence of the disease and our statistical model can help to implement seasonal prevention measures.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Unité Mixte de Recherche Contrôle des Maladies Animales Exotiques et Emergentes, Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, Sainte-Clotilde, La Réunion, France. amelie.desvars@cirad.fr

ABSTRACT

Background: Leptospirosis is a disease which occurs worldwide but particularly affects tropical areas. Transmission of the disease is dependent on its excretion by reservoir animals and the presence of moist environment which allows the survival of the bacteria.

Methods and findings: A retrospective study was undertaken to describe seasonal patterns of human leptospirosis cases reported by the Centre National de Références des Leptospiroses (CNRL, Pasteur Institute, Paris) between 1998 and 2008, to determine if there was an association between the occurrence of diagnosed cases and rainfall, temperature and global solar radiation (GSR). Meteorological data were recorded in the town of Saint-Benoît (Météo France "Beaufonds-Miria" station), located on the windward (East) coast. Time-series analysis was used to identify the variables that best described and predicted the occurrence of cases of leptospirosis on the island. Six hundred and thirteen cases were reported during the 11-year study period, and 359 cases (58.56%) were diagnosed between February and May. A significant correlation was identified between the number of cases in a given month and the associated cumulated rainfall as well as the mean monthly temperature recorded 2 months prior to diagnosis (r = 0.28 and r = 0.23 respectively). The predictive model includes the number of cases of leptospirosis recorded 1 month prior to diagnosis (b = 0.193), the cumulated monthly rainfall recorded 2 months prior to diagnosis (b = 0.145), the average monthly temperature recorded 0 month prior to diagnosis (b = 3.836), and the average monthly GSR recorded 0 month prior to diagnosis (b = -1.293).

Conclusions: Leptospirosis has a seasonal distribution in Reunion Island. Meteorological data can be used to predict the occurrence of the disease and our statistical model can help to implement seasonal prevention measures.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus