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Modeling of H1N1 Outbreak in Rajasthan: Methods and Approaches.

Gupta SD, Lal V, Jain R, Gupta OP - Indian J Community Med (2011)

Bottom Line: We attempted to fit the actual reported data and compared with prediction models.The duration of epidemic may be prolonged if R(0) is reduced.Decreasing the value of R(0) would decrease the proportion of total population infected by H1N1; however, the duration of the outbreak may be prolonged.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Institute of Health Management Research, Jaipur, India.

ABSTRACT

Background: Mathematical models could provide critical insights for informing preparedness and planning to deal with future epidemics of infectious disease.

Objective: The study modeled the H1N1 epidemic in the city of Jaipur, Rajasthan using mathematical model for prediction of progression of epidemic and its duration.

Materials and methods: We iterated the model for various values of R(0) to determine the effect of variations in R(0) onthe potential size and time-course of the epidemic, while keeping value of 1/γ constant. Further simulation using varying values of 1/γ were done, keeping value of R(0) constant. We attempted to fit the actual reported data and compared with prediction models.

Results: As R(0) increases,incidence of H1N1 rises and reaches peak early. The duration of epidemic may be prolonged if R(0) is reduced. Using the parameters R(0) as 1.4 and 1/γ as 3, it estimated that there would have been 656 actually infected individuals for each reported case.

Conclusion: The mathematical modeling can be used for predicting epidemic progression and impact of control measures. Decreasing the value of R(0) would decrease the proportion of total population infected by H1N1; however, the duration of the outbreak may be prolonged.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Effect of change in 1/γ on proportion of population infected and duration of epidemic
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Figure 2: Effect of change in 1/γ on proportion of population infected and duration of epidemic

Mentions: Keeping R0 constant at 1.4, the model was simulated to obtain epidemic curves for varying values of 1/γ= 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. For a value of 1/γ= 2, a sharp narrow peak of epidemic curve was obtained. Increasing the value of 1/γto 3, did not change the height of peak, although resulted in a broader curve. A further increase of 1/γto 6, resulted in a much broader curve on the time scale with no change in the height of peak. This implied that altering the period of recovery, it did not much affect the proportion of infected population. However, it implied that with the longer periods of recovery, the duration of the epidemic was prolonged. [Figure 2].


Modeling of H1N1 Outbreak in Rajasthan: Methods and Approaches.

Gupta SD, Lal V, Jain R, Gupta OP - Indian J Community Med (2011)

Effect of change in 1/γ on proportion of population infected and duration of epidemic
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3104706&req=5

Figure 2: Effect of change in 1/γ on proportion of population infected and duration of epidemic
Mentions: Keeping R0 constant at 1.4, the model was simulated to obtain epidemic curves for varying values of 1/γ= 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. For a value of 1/γ= 2, a sharp narrow peak of epidemic curve was obtained. Increasing the value of 1/γto 3, did not change the height of peak, although resulted in a broader curve. A further increase of 1/γto 6, resulted in a much broader curve on the time scale with no change in the height of peak. This implied that altering the period of recovery, it did not much affect the proportion of infected population. However, it implied that with the longer periods of recovery, the duration of the epidemic was prolonged. [Figure 2].

Bottom Line: We attempted to fit the actual reported data and compared with prediction models.The duration of epidemic may be prolonged if R(0) is reduced.Decreasing the value of R(0) would decrease the proportion of total population infected by H1N1; however, the duration of the outbreak may be prolonged.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Institute of Health Management Research, Jaipur, India.

ABSTRACT

Background: Mathematical models could provide critical insights for informing preparedness and planning to deal with future epidemics of infectious disease.

Objective: The study modeled the H1N1 epidemic in the city of Jaipur, Rajasthan using mathematical model for prediction of progression of epidemic and its duration.

Materials and methods: We iterated the model for various values of R(0) to determine the effect of variations in R(0) onthe potential size and time-course of the epidemic, while keeping value of 1/γ constant. Further simulation using varying values of 1/γ were done, keeping value of R(0) constant. We attempted to fit the actual reported data and compared with prediction models.

Results: As R(0) increases,incidence of H1N1 rises and reaches peak early. The duration of epidemic may be prolonged if R(0) is reduced. Using the parameters R(0) as 1.4 and 1/γ as 3, it estimated that there would have been 656 actually infected individuals for each reported case.

Conclusion: The mathematical modeling can be used for predicting epidemic progression and impact of control measures. Decreasing the value of R(0) would decrease the proportion of total population infected by H1N1; however, the duration of the outbreak may be prolonged.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus