Limits...
Modeling of H1N1 Outbreak in Rajasthan: Methods and Approaches.

Gupta SD, Lal V, Jain R, Gupta OP - Indian J Community Med (2011)

Bottom Line: We attempted to fit the actual reported data and compared with prediction models.The duration of epidemic may be prolonged if R(0) is reduced.Decreasing the value of R(0) would decrease the proportion of total population infected by H1N1; however, the duration of the outbreak may be prolonged.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Institute of Health Management Research, Jaipur, India.

ABSTRACT

Background: Mathematical models could provide critical insights for informing preparedness and planning to deal with future epidemics of infectious disease.

Objective: The study modeled the H1N1 epidemic in the city of Jaipur, Rajasthan using mathematical model for prediction of progression of epidemic and its duration.

Materials and methods: We iterated the model for various values of R(0) to determine the effect of variations in R(0) onthe potential size and time-course of the epidemic, while keeping value of 1/γ constant. Further simulation using varying values of 1/γ were done, keeping value of R(0) constant. We attempted to fit the actual reported data and compared with prediction models.

Results: As R(0) increases,incidence of H1N1 rises and reaches peak early. The duration of epidemic may be prolonged if R(0) is reduced. Using the parameters R(0) as 1.4 and 1/γ as 3, it estimated that there would have been 656 actually infected individuals for each reported case.

Conclusion: The mathematical modeling can be used for predicting epidemic progression and impact of control measures. Decreasing the value of R(0) would decrease the proportion of total population infected by H1N1; however, the duration of the outbreak may be prolonged.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Effect of change in R0 on proportion of population infected and duration of epidemic
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3104706&req=5

Figure 1: Effect of change in R0 on proportion of population infected and duration of epidemic

Mentions: Keeping 1/γ constant at 3, the model was simulated to obtain epidemic curves for varying values of R0 =1.2, 1.3, 1.4, 1.5 and 1.6. For a value of R0 = 1.6, a sharp narrow peak of epidemic curve was obtained. Decreasing the value of R0 to 1.5 resulted in a shorter peak, although broadened the curve on the time scale. A further decrease of R0 to 1.2 resulted in flattening of the curve. This implied that with high rate of contact, there was a rapid increase in the proportion of infected population. Decreasing the R0 resulted in a decrease in the proportion of the infected population, but with a prolonged duration of epidemic [Figure 1].


Modeling of H1N1 Outbreak in Rajasthan: Methods and Approaches.

Gupta SD, Lal V, Jain R, Gupta OP - Indian J Community Med (2011)

Effect of change in R0 on proportion of population infected and duration of epidemic
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3104706&req=5

Figure 1: Effect of change in R0 on proportion of population infected and duration of epidemic
Mentions: Keeping 1/γ constant at 3, the model was simulated to obtain epidemic curves for varying values of R0 =1.2, 1.3, 1.4, 1.5 and 1.6. For a value of R0 = 1.6, a sharp narrow peak of epidemic curve was obtained. Decreasing the value of R0 to 1.5 resulted in a shorter peak, although broadened the curve on the time scale. A further decrease of R0 to 1.2 resulted in flattening of the curve. This implied that with high rate of contact, there was a rapid increase in the proportion of infected population. Decreasing the R0 resulted in a decrease in the proportion of the infected population, but with a prolonged duration of epidemic [Figure 1].

Bottom Line: We attempted to fit the actual reported data and compared with prediction models.The duration of epidemic may be prolonged if R(0) is reduced.Decreasing the value of R(0) would decrease the proportion of total population infected by H1N1; however, the duration of the outbreak may be prolonged.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Institute of Health Management Research, Jaipur, India.

ABSTRACT

Background: Mathematical models could provide critical insights for informing preparedness and planning to deal with future epidemics of infectious disease.

Objective: The study modeled the H1N1 epidemic in the city of Jaipur, Rajasthan using mathematical model for prediction of progression of epidemic and its duration.

Materials and methods: We iterated the model for various values of R(0) to determine the effect of variations in R(0) onthe potential size and time-course of the epidemic, while keeping value of 1/γ constant. Further simulation using varying values of 1/γ were done, keeping value of R(0) constant. We attempted to fit the actual reported data and compared with prediction models.

Results: As R(0) increases,incidence of H1N1 rises and reaches peak early. The duration of epidemic may be prolonged if R(0) is reduced. Using the parameters R(0) as 1.4 and 1/γ as 3, it estimated that there would have been 656 actually infected individuals for each reported case.

Conclusion: The mathematical modeling can be used for predicting epidemic progression and impact of control measures. Decreasing the value of R(0) would decrease the proportion of total population infected by H1N1; however, the duration of the outbreak may be prolonged.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus