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Age-specific incidence of A/H1N1 2009 influenza infection in England from sequential antibody prevalence data using likelihood-based estimation.

Baguelin M, Hoschler K, Stanford E, Waight P, Hardelid P, Andrews N, Miller E - PLoS ONE (2011)

Bottom Line: This method is applied to derive the cumulative and weekly incidence of A/H1N1 pandemic influenza in England during the second wave using sera taken between September 2009 and February 2010 in four age groups (1-4, 5-14, 15-24, 25-44 years).The highest cumulative incidence was in 5-14 year olds (59%, 95% credible interval (CI): 52%, 68%) followed by 1-4 year olds (49%, 95% CI: 38%, 61%), rates 20 and 40 times higher respectively than estimated from clinical surveillance.The method provides a more accurate and continuous measure of incidence than achieved by comparing prevalence in samples grouped by time period.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Immunisation, Hepatitis and Blood Safety Department, Health Protection Agency, London, United Kingdom. marc.baguelin@hpa.org.uk

ABSTRACT
Estimating the age-specific incidence of an emerging pathogen is essential for understanding its severity and transmission dynamics. This paper describes a statistical method that uses likelihoods to estimate incidence from sequential serological data. The method requires information on seroconversion intervals and allows integration of information on the temporal distribution of cases from clinical surveillance. Among a family of candidate incidences, a likelihood function is derived by reconstructing the change in seroprevalence from seroconversion following infection and comparing it with the observed sequence of positivity among the samples. This method is applied to derive the cumulative and weekly incidence of A/H1N1 pandemic influenza in England during the second wave using sera taken between September 2009 and February 2010 in four age groups (1-4, 5-14, 15-24, 25-44 years). The highest cumulative incidence was in 5-14 year olds (59%, 95% credible interval (CI): 52%, 68%) followed by 1-4 year olds (49%, 95% CI: 38%, 61%), rates 20 and 40 times higher respectively than estimated from clinical surveillance. The method provides a more accurate and continuous measure of incidence than achieved by comparing prevalence in samples grouped by time period.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Proportion of clinial cases by week.Proportion of clinical cases by week for the second wave for four age-groups (1–4, 5–14, 15–24, 25–44 years) derived from clinical surveillance data.
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pone-0017074-g001: Proportion of clinial cases by week.Proportion of clinical cases by week for the second wave for four age-groups (1–4, 5–14, 15–24, 25–44 years) derived from clinical surveillance data.

Mentions: The distribution of clinical cases in the second wave by week was similar in the four age groups, though with an earlier peak in the 5–14 and 15–24 year olds (Figure 1). The drop in clinical incidence in the 5–14 year olds in November coincided with school closure for half term.


Age-specific incidence of A/H1N1 2009 influenza infection in England from sequential antibody prevalence data using likelihood-based estimation.

Baguelin M, Hoschler K, Stanford E, Waight P, Hardelid P, Andrews N, Miller E - PLoS ONE (2011)

Proportion of clinial cases by week.Proportion of clinical cases by week for the second wave for four age-groups (1–4, 5–14, 15–24, 25–44 years) derived from clinical surveillance data.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3044152&req=5

pone-0017074-g001: Proportion of clinial cases by week.Proportion of clinical cases by week for the second wave for four age-groups (1–4, 5–14, 15–24, 25–44 years) derived from clinical surveillance data.
Mentions: The distribution of clinical cases in the second wave by week was similar in the four age groups, though with an earlier peak in the 5–14 and 15–24 year olds (Figure 1). The drop in clinical incidence in the 5–14 year olds in November coincided with school closure for half term.

Bottom Line: This method is applied to derive the cumulative and weekly incidence of A/H1N1 pandemic influenza in England during the second wave using sera taken between September 2009 and February 2010 in four age groups (1-4, 5-14, 15-24, 25-44 years).The highest cumulative incidence was in 5-14 year olds (59%, 95% credible interval (CI): 52%, 68%) followed by 1-4 year olds (49%, 95% CI: 38%, 61%), rates 20 and 40 times higher respectively than estimated from clinical surveillance.The method provides a more accurate and continuous measure of incidence than achieved by comparing prevalence in samples grouped by time period.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Immunisation, Hepatitis and Blood Safety Department, Health Protection Agency, London, United Kingdom. marc.baguelin@hpa.org.uk

ABSTRACT
Estimating the age-specific incidence of an emerging pathogen is essential for understanding its severity and transmission dynamics. This paper describes a statistical method that uses likelihoods to estimate incidence from sequential serological data. The method requires information on seroconversion intervals and allows integration of information on the temporal distribution of cases from clinical surveillance. Among a family of candidate incidences, a likelihood function is derived by reconstructing the change in seroprevalence from seroconversion following infection and comparing it with the observed sequence of positivity among the samples. This method is applied to derive the cumulative and weekly incidence of A/H1N1 pandemic influenza in England during the second wave using sera taken between September 2009 and February 2010 in four age groups (1-4, 5-14, 15-24, 25-44 years). The highest cumulative incidence was in 5-14 year olds (59%, 95% credible interval (CI): 52%, 68%) followed by 1-4 year olds (49%, 95% CI: 38%, 61%), rates 20 and 40 times higher respectively than estimated from clinical surveillance. The method provides a more accurate and continuous measure of incidence than achieved by comparing prevalence in samples grouped by time period.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus