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Severe acute respiratory syndrome: temporal stability and geographic variation in case-fatality rates and doubling times.

Galvani AP, Lei X, Jewell NP - Emerging Infect. Dis. (2003)

Bottom Line: We analyzed temporal stability and geographic trends in cumulative case-fatality rates and average doubling times of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).In part, we account for correlations between case-fatality rates and doubling times through differences in control measures.Factors that may alter future estimates of case-fatality rates, reasons for heterogeneity in doubling times among countries, and implications for the control of SARS are discussed.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: University of California, Berkeley, California, USA. agalvani@nature.berkeley.edu

ABSTRACT
We analyzed temporal stability and geographic trends in cumulative case-fatality rates and average doubling times of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). In part, we account for correlations between case-fatality rates and doubling times through differences in control measures. Factors that may alter future estimates of case-fatality rates, reasons for heterogeneity in doubling times among countries, and implications for the control of SARS are discussed.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Time series of log of average doubling time for severe acute respiratory syndrome.
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Figure 3: Time series of log of average doubling time for severe acute respiratory syndrome.

Mentions: As an epidemic declines, the doubling time increases. Variation in doubling time among countries probably arises from variation in both transmission rates and control efforts (Figure 3). Transmission rate (with units of time-1) is determined by the expected number of susceptible persons with whom each infectious person comes into contact during a time unit in their infectious periods and by the probability of disease transmission per contact. High-density population centers, crowded public transportation systems, and hospital waiting rooms increase the number of contacts, while personal hygiene affects the probability that transmission will occur with each contact. In all countries, seasonal effects may also play a substantial role with the virus spreading faster in winter.


Severe acute respiratory syndrome: temporal stability and geographic variation in case-fatality rates and doubling times.

Galvani AP, Lei X, Jewell NP - Emerging Infect. Dis. (2003)

Time series of log of average doubling time for severe acute respiratory syndrome.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3020622&req=5

Figure 3: Time series of log of average doubling time for severe acute respiratory syndrome.
Mentions: As an epidemic declines, the doubling time increases. Variation in doubling time among countries probably arises from variation in both transmission rates and control efforts (Figure 3). Transmission rate (with units of time-1) is determined by the expected number of susceptible persons with whom each infectious person comes into contact during a time unit in their infectious periods and by the probability of disease transmission per contact. High-density population centers, crowded public transportation systems, and hospital waiting rooms increase the number of contacts, while personal hygiene affects the probability that transmission will occur with each contact. In all countries, seasonal effects may also play a substantial role with the virus spreading faster in winter.

Bottom Line: We analyzed temporal stability and geographic trends in cumulative case-fatality rates and average doubling times of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).In part, we account for correlations between case-fatality rates and doubling times through differences in control measures.Factors that may alter future estimates of case-fatality rates, reasons for heterogeneity in doubling times among countries, and implications for the control of SARS are discussed.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: University of California, Berkeley, California, USA. agalvani@nature.berkeley.edu

ABSTRACT
We analyzed temporal stability and geographic trends in cumulative case-fatality rates and average doubling times of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). In part, we account for correlations between case-fatality rates and doubling times through differences in control measures. Factors that may alter future estimates of case-fatality rates, reasons for heterogeneity in doubling times among countries, and implications for the control of SARS are discussed.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus