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Detecting the start of an influenza outbreak using exponentially weighted moving average charts.

Steiner SH, Grant K, Coory M, Kelly HA - BMC Med Inform Decis Mak (2010)

Bottom Line: Influenza viruses cause seasonal outbreaks in temperate climates, usually during winter and early spring, and are endemic in tropical climates.The chart is shown to provide timely signals in an example application with seven years of data from Victoria, Australia.The EWMA control chart could be applied in other applications to quickly detect influenza outbreaks.

View Article: PubMed Central - HTML - PubMed

Affiliation: Dept. of Statistics, University of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. shsteine@math.uwaterloo.ca

ABSTRACT

Background: Influenza viruses cause seasonal outbreaks in temperate climates, usually during winter and early spring, and are endemic in tropical climates. The severity and length of influenza outbreaks vary from year to year. Quick and reliable detection of the start of an outbreak is needed to promote public health measures.

Methods: We propose the use of an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart of laboratory confirmed influenza counts to detect the start and end of influenza outbreaks.

Results: The chart is shown to provide timely signals in an example application with seven years of data from Victoria, Australia.

Conclusions: The EWMA control chart could be applied in other applications to quickly detect influenza outbreaks.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Victorian Weekly Laboratory Notifications of Influenza 2002-2008 With Shewhart Chart Threshold of 6.5.
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Figure 1: Victorian Weekly Laboratory Notifications of Influenza 2002-2008 With Shewhart Chart Threshold of 6.5.

Mentions: All laboratory tests were conducted at the Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory (VIDRL) from patients with ILI from sentinel general practices who were tested for influenza and from patients tested as part of routine clinical mangement. Sentinel general practices are community-based practices that provide surveillance data on infectious diseases. It is generally assumed that sentinel practices represent all community practices and information from those practices describes infectious disease activity in the community [16]. Laboratory testing used polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays for the diagnosis of influenza [17]. The weekly VIDRL laboratory confirmed influenza counts for the period 2002-2008 are shown in Figure 1. The seasonal influenza outbreaks are clearly visible. The start of each influenza season corresponds to a rapid increase in the number of laboratory notifications. It therefore seems reasonable the start of an influenza outbreak should be relatively easy to detect prospectively.


Detecting the start of an influenza outbreak using exponentially weighted moving average charts.

Steiner SH, Grant K, Coory M, Kelly HA - BMC Med Inform Decis Mak (2010)

Victorian Weekly Laboratory Notifications of Influenza 2002-2008 With Shewhart Chart Threshold of 6.5.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC2909986&req=5

Figure 1: Victorian Weekly Laboratory Notifications of Influenza 2002-2008 With Shewhart Chart Threshold of 6.5.
Mentions: All laboratory tests were conducted at the Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory (VIDRL) from patients with ILI from sentinel general practices who were tested for influenza and from patients tested as part of routine clinical mangement. Sentinel general practices are community-based practices that provide surveillance data on infectious diseases. It is generally assumed that sentinel practices represent all community practices and information from those practices describes infectious disease activity in the community [16]. Laboratory testing used polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays for the diagnosis of influenza [17]. The weekly VIDRL laboratory confirmed influenza counts for the period 2002-2008 are shown in Figure 1. The seasonal influenza outbreaks are clearly visible. The start of each influenza season corresponds to a rapid increase in the number of laboratory notifications. It therefore seems reasonable the start of an influenza outbreak should be relatively easy to detect prospectively.

Bottom Line: Influenza viruses cause seasonal outbreaks in temperate climates, usually during winter and early spring, and are endemic in tropical climates.The chart is shown to provide timely signals in an example application with seven years of data from Victoria, Australia.The EWMA control chart could be applied in other applications to quickly detect influenza outbreaks.

View Article: PubMed Central - HTML - PubMed

Affiliation: Dept. of Statistics, University of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. shsteine@math.uwaterloo.ca

ABSTRACT

Background: Influenza viruses cause seasonal outbreaks in temperate climates, usually during winter and early spring, and are endemic in tropical climates. The severity and length of influenza outbreaks vary from year to year. Quick and reliable detection of the start of an outbreak is needed to promote public health measures.

Methods: We propose the use of an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart of laboratory confirmed influenza counts to detect the start and end of influenza outbreaks.

Results: The chart is shown to provide timely signals in an example application with seven years of data from Victoria, Australia.

Conclusions: The EWMA control chart could be applied in other applications to quickly detect influenza outbreaks.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus