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Smoke-free law associated with higher-than-expected taxable retail sales for bars and taverns in Washington State.

Boles M, Dilley J, Maher JE, Boysun MJ, Reid T - Prev Chronic Dis (2010)

Bottom Line: Continued progress in implementing smoke-free laws throughout the United States would benefit from documenting positive economic effects, particularly for the hospitality industry.We found no immediate change in bar revenues in the first quarter of 2006, but taxable retail sales grew significantly through the fourth quarter of 2007.Potential increases in revenue in other jurisdictions that implement smoke-free indoor air policies could provide funds to benefit residents of those jurisdictions.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Program Design and Evaluation Services, Multnomah County Health Department and Oregon Public Health Division, 827 NE Oregon St, Ste 250, Portland, OR 97232, USA. myde.boles@state.or.us

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Continued progress in implementing smoke-free laws throughout the United States would benefit from documenting positive economic effects, particularly for the hospitality industry. This study describes changes in sales revenue in bars and taverns since December 2005, when a statewide smoke-free law in Washington State went into effect.

Methods: Using 24 quarters of inflation-adjusted taxable retail sales data from 2002 through 2007, we fitted a regression model to estimate the effect of the smoke-free law on sales revenue, controlling for seasonality and other economic factors.

Results: We found no immediate change in bar revenues in the first quarter of 2006, but taxable retail sales grew significantly through the fourth quarter of 2007. In the 2 years after the smoke-free law was implemented, sales revenues were $105.5 million higher than expected for bars and taverns in Washington State.

Conclusion: The higher-than-expected revenue from taxable sales in bars and taverns after the implementation of smoke-free laws in Washington State provided extra funds to the state general fund. Potential increases in revenue in other jurisdictions that implement smoke-free indoor air policies could provide funds to benefit residents of those jurisdictions.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Predicted values from a regression model predicting taxable retail sales (TRS) in bars and taverns in Washington State after the implementation of a smoke-free law, from the fourth quarter of 2005 (Q4:2005) through the fourth quarter of 2007 (Q4:2007). Values are adjusted for seasonality, unemployment, and personal income from 2002 through 2007 (data before Q4:2005 are not shown).
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Related In: Results  -  Collection


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Figure 1: Predicted values from a regression model predicting taxable retail sales (TRS) in bars and taverns in Washington State after the implementation of a smoke-free law, from the fourth quarter of 2005 (Q4:2005) through the fourth quarter of 2007 (Q4:2007). Values are adjusted for seasonality, unemployment, and personal income from 2002 through 2007 (data before Q4:2005 are not shown).

Mentions: The Figure compares the predicted values of TRS for bars and taverns with and without the smoke-free law and shows the divergence of the 2 trend lines over all quarters after the smoke-free law went into effect. The difference calculated from this comparison quantified the quarterly additive increase in bar revenue through the fourth quarter of 2007. The estimated net gain in bar revenue for the 2-year period immediately after implementation of the smoke-free law was $105.5 million.


Smoke-free law associated with higher-than-expected taxable retail sales for bars and taverns in Washington State.

Boles M, Dilley J, Maher JE, Boysun MJ, Reid T - Prev Chronic Dis (2010)

Predicted values from a regression model predicting taxable retail sales (TRS) in bars and taverns in Washington State after the implementation of a smoke-free law, from the fourth quarter of 2005 (Q4:2005) through the fourth quarter of 2007 (Q4:2007). Values are adjusted for seasonality, unemployment, and personal income from 2002 through 2007 (data before Q4:2005 are not shown).
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC2901577&req=5

Figure 1: Predicted values from a regression model predicting taxable retail sales (TRS) in bars and taverns in Washington State after the implementation of a smoke-free law, from the fourth quarter of 2005 (Q4:2005) through the fourth quarter of 2007 (Q4:2007). Values are adjusted for seasonality, unemployment, and personal income from 2002 through 2007 (data before Q4:2005 are not shown).
Mentions: The Figure compares the predicted values of TRS for bars and taverns with and without the smoke-free law and shows the divergence of the 2 trend lines over all quarters after the smoke-free law went into effect. The difference calculated from this comparison quantified the quarterly additive increase in bar revenue through the fourth quarter of 2007. The estimated net gain in bar revenue for the 2-year period immediately after implementation of the smoke-free law was $105.5 million.

Bottom Line: Continued progress in implementing smoke-free laws throughout the United States would benefit from documenting positive economic effects, particularly for the hospitality industry.We found no immediate change in bar revenues in the first quarter of 2006, but taxable retail sales grew significantly through the fourth quarter of 2007.Potential increases in revenue in other jurisdictions that implement smoke-free indoor air policies could provide funds to benefit residents of those jurisdictions.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Program Design and Evaluation Services, Multnomah County Health Department and Oregon Public Health Division, 827 NE Oregon St, Ste 250, Portland, OR 97232, USA. myde.boles@state.or.us

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Continued progress in implementing smoke-free laws throughout the United States would benefit from documenting positive economic effects, particularly for the hospitality industry. This study describes changes in sales revenue in bars and taverns since December 2005, when a statewide smoke-free law in Washington State went into effect.

Methods: Using 24 quarters of inflation-adjusted taxable retail sales data from 2002 through 2007, we fitted a regression model to estimate the effect of the smoke-free law on sales revenue, controlling for seasonality and other economic factors.

Results: We found no immediate change in bar revenues in the first quarter of 2006, but taxable retail sales grew significantly through the fourth quarter of 2007. In the 2 years after the smoke-free law was implemented, sales revenues were $105.5 million higher than expected for bars and taverns in Washington State.

Conclusion: The higher-than-expected revenue from taxable sales in bars and taverns after the implementation of smoke-free laws in Washington State provided extra funds to the state general fund. Potential increases in revenue in other jurisdictions that implement smoke-free indoor air policies could provide funds to benefit residents of those jurisdictions.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus