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Mathematical modeling of the effectiveness of facemasks in reducing the spread of novel influenza A (H1N1).

Tracht SM, Del Valle SY, Hyman JM - PLoS ONE (2010)

Bottom Line: To estimate the parameter values used for the effectiveness of facemasks, we used available data from studies on N95 respirators and surgical facemasks.The results show that if N95 respirators are only 20% effective in reducing susceptibility and infectivity, only 10% of the population would have to wear them to reduce the number of influenza A (H1N1) cases by 20%.We can conclude from our model that, if worn properly, facemasks are an effective intervention strategy in reducing the spread of pandemic (H1N1) 2009.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Energy and Infrastructure Analysis Group, Decisions Applications Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America. samantha.tracht@gmail.com

ABSTRACT
On June 11, 2009, the World Health Organization declared the outbreak of novel influenza A (H1N1) a pandemic. With limited supplies of antivirals and vaccines, countries and individuals are looking at other ways to reduce the spread of pandemic (H1N1) 2009, particularly options that are cost effective and relatively easy to implement. Recent experiences with the 2003 SARS and 2009 H1N1 epidemics have shown that people are willing to wear facemasks to protect themselves against infection; however, little research has been done to quantify the impact of using facemasks in reducing the spread of disease. We construct and analyze a mathematical model for a population in which some people wear facemasks during the pandemic and quantify impact of these masks on the spread of influenza. To estimate the parameter values used for the effectiveness of facemasks, we used available data from studies on N95 respirators and surgical facemasks. The results show that if N95 respirators are only 20% effective in reducing susceptibility and infectivity, only 10% of the population would have to wear them to reduce the number of influenza A (H1N1) cases by 20%. We can conclude from our model that, if worn properly, facemasks are an effective intervention strategy in reducing the spread of pandemic (H1N1) 2009.

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Cumulative Number of Cases for N95 Respirator.Without any interventions the number of cumulative cases is shown by the solid blue line. As expected when the mask is more effective or more people wear a masks, then the number of cumulative cases decreases. Note how effective the N95 is when only 10% of the population wears a respirator.
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pone-0009018-g002: Cumulative Number of Cases for N95 Respirator.Without any interventions the number of cumulative cases is shown by the solid blue line. As expected when the mask is more effective or more people wear a masks, then the number of cumulative cases decreases. Note how effective the N95 is when only 10% of the population wears a respirator.

Mentions: The numerical results for the percentage of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 cases are shown in Table 3 for the N95 respirator and in Table 4 for surgical masks. The effective reproduction numbers for each case are shown in Table 5 for N95 respirators and in Table 6 for surgical masks. The cumulative number of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 cases can be seen graphically for the varying mask effectiveness and the different fractions of individuals wearing masks in Figure 2 and in Figure 3 for N95 respirators and surgical masks, respectively.


Mathematical modeling of the effectiveness of facemasks in reducing the spread of novel influenza A (H1N1).

Tracht SM, Del Valle SY, Hyman JM - PLoS ONE (2010)

Cumulative Number of Cases for N95 Respirator.Without any interventions the number of cumulative cases is shown by the solid blue line. As expected when the mask is more effective or more people wear a masks, then the number of cumulative cases decreases. Note how effective the N95 is when only 10% of the population wears a respirator.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC2818714&req=5

pone-0009018-g002: Cumulative Number of Cases for N95 Respirator.Without any interventions the number of cumulative cases is shown by the solid blue line. As expected when the mask is more effective or more people wear a masks, then the number of cumulative cases decreases. Note how effective the N95 is when only 10% of the population wears a respirator.
Mentions: The numerical results for the percentage of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 cases are shown in Table 3 for the N95 respirator and in Table 4 for surgical masks. The effective reproduction numbers for each case are shown in Table 5 for N95 respirators and in Table 6 for surgical masks. The cumulative number of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 cases can be seen graphically for the varying mask effectiveness and the different fractions of individuals wearing masks in Figure 2 and in Figure 3 for N95 respirators and surgical masks, respectively.

Bottom Line: To estimate the parameter values used for the effectiveness of facemasks, we used available data from studies on N95 respirators and surgical facemasks.The results show that if N95 respirators are only 20% effective in reducing susceptibility and infectivity, only 10% of the population would have to wear them to reduce the number of influenza A (H1N1) cases by 20%.We can conclude from our model that, if worn properly, facemasks are an effective intervention strategy in reducing the spread of pandemic (H1N1) 2009.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Energy and Infrastructure Analysis Group, Decisions Applications Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America. samantha.tracht@gmail.com

ABSTRACT
On June 11, 2009, the World Health Organization declared the outbreak of novel influenza A (H1N1) a pandemic. With limited supplies of antivirals and vaccines, countries and individuals are looking at other ways to reduce the spread of pandemic (H1N1) 2009, particularly options that are cost effective and relatively easy to implement. Recent experiences with the 2003 SARS and 2009 H1N1 epidemics have shown that people are willing to wear facemasks to protect themselves against infection; however, little research has been done to quantify the impact of using facemasks in reducing the spread of disease. We construct and analyze a mathematical model for a population in which some people wear facemasks during the pandemic and quantify impact of these masks on the spread of influenza. To estimate the parameter values used for the effectiveness of facemasks, we used available data from studies on N95 respirators and surgical facemasks. The results show that if N95 respirators are only 20% effective in reducing susceptibility and infectivity, only 10% of the population would have to wear them to reduce the number of influenza A (H1N1) cases by 20%. We can conclude from our model that, if worn properly, facemasks are an effective intervention strategy in reducing the spread of pandemic (H1N1) 2009.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus