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Sex differential in mortality trends of old-aged Danes: a nation wide study of age, period and cohort effects.

Jacobsen R, Oksuzyan A, Engberg H, Jeune B, Vaupel JW, Christensen K - Eur. J. Epidemiol. (2008)

Bottom Line: Here we investigate whether this mortality pattern is mainly explained by period effects, cohort effects or both.The observed rates were better described by the age, period and cohort model than by other models.Cohort effects on the mortality of the oldest Danish women and men played a significant but minor role compared to period effects.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Institute of Public Health, Epidemiology, University of Southern Denmark, Odense C, Denmark. rjacobsen@health.sdu.dk

ABSTRACT

Objective: Over the last half century the mortality rates in Denmark for females above age 80 have declined dramatically whereas the decline for males have been modest, resulting in a change in sex-ratio for centenarians from 2 to 5. Here we investigate whether this mortality pattern is mainly explained by period effects, cohort effects or both. This can provide clues for where to search for causes behind the changes in sex differential in mortality seen in many Western countries during the last decades.

Methods: Age-period-cohort study of mortality for all Danish women and men aged 79-98 during the period 1949-2006.

Outcome measures: Relative risks for deaths and second order differences for exploration of the nonlinear variation.

Results: Both the overall trends in mortality differences and the fluctuations in mortality for both men and women were better explained by period effects than by cohort effects. The observed rates were better described by the age, period and cohort model than by other models.

Conclusions: Our results suggest that causes for both the overall increased difference in mortality and the short term fluctuations in mortality rates are primarily to be found in the period dimension. Cohort effects on the mortality of the oldest Danish women and men played a significant but minor role compared to period effects.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Crude death rates for Danish women and men aged 79–98 from 1949 to 2006
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Fig3: Crude death rates for Danish women and men aged 79–98 from 1949 to 2006

Mentions: There was an overall decline in mortality rates for both Danish women and men during the last half of the twentieth century (Fig. 2). However, around 1960, acceleration in the decline began for women aged 79–92 independently of age group. This step decline was not seen for men and led to the increase in the overall sex differential in mortality. For persons above 92 years the pattern was fluctuating (Fig. 3) illustrating the low number of survivors at these extreme ages. Also, the fluctuations in the mortality pattern (i.e. between adjacent year groups) showed a similar pattern independently of sex and age group (Fig. 3).Fig. 2


Sex differential in mortality trends of old-aged Danes: a nation wide study of age, period and cohort effects.

Jacobsen R, Oksuzyan A, Engberg H, Jeune B, Vaupel JW, Christensen K - Eur. J. Epidemiol. (2008)

Crude death rates for Danish women and men aged 79–98 from 1949 to 2006
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC2749933&req=5

Fig3: Crude death rates for Danish women and men aged 79–98 from 1949 to 2006
Mentions: There was an overall decline in mortality rates for both Danish women and men during the last half of the twentieth century (Fig. 2). However, around 1960, acceleration in the decline began for women aged 79–92 independently of age group. This step decline was not seen for men and led to the increase in the overall sex differential in mortality. For persons above 92 years the pattern was fluctuating (Fig. 3) illustrating the low number of survivors at these extreme ages. Also, the fluctuations in the mortality pattern (i.e. between adjacent year groups) showed a similar pattern independently of sex and age group (Fig. 3).Fig. 2

Bottom Line: Here we investigate whether this mortality pattern is mainly explained by period effects, cohort effects or both.The observed rates were better described by the age, period and cohort model than by other models.Cohort effects on the mortality of the oldest Danish women and men played a significant but minor role compared to period effects.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Institute of Public Health, Epidemiology, University of Southern Denmark, Odense C, Denmark. rjacobsen@health.sdu.dk

ABSTRACT

Objective: Over the last half century the mortality rates in Denmark for females above age 80 have declined dramatically whereas the decline for males have been modest, resulting in a change in sex-ratio for centenarians from 2 to 5. Here we investigate whether this mortality pattern is mainly explained by period effects, cohort effects or both. This can provide clues for where to search for causes behind the changes in sex differential in mortality seen in many Western countries during the last decades.

Methods: Age-period-cohort study of mortality for all Danish women and men aged 79-98 during the period 1949-2006.

Outcome measures: Relative risks for deaths and second order differences for exploration of the nonlinear variation.

Results: Both the overall trends in mortality differences and the fluctuations in mortality for both men and women were better explained by period effects than by cohort effects. The observed rates were better described by the age, period and cohort model than by other models.

Conclusions: Our results suggest that causes for both the overall increased difference in mortality and the short term fluctuations in mortality rates are primarily to be found in the period dimension. Cohort effects on the mortality of the oldest Danish women and men played a significant but minor role compared to period effects.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus