Limits...
A scoring system to predict renal outcome in IgA nephropathy: a nationwide 10-year prospective cohort study.

Goto M, Wakai K, Kawamura T, Ando M, Endoh M, Tomino Y - Nephrol. Dial. Transplant. (2009)

Bottom Line: However, prediction of the renal outcome in individual patients remains difficult.This prognostic score accurately classified patients by risk: patients with estimates of 0-4.9, 5.0-19.9, 20.0-49.9 and 50.0-100% had an observed incidence of 1.7, 8.3, 36.7 and 85.5%, respectively.The corresponding area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.942 (95% confidence interval, 0.925-0.958).

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Kyoto University Health Service, Kyoto, Japan. goto@msa.biglobe.ne.jp

ABSTRACT

Background: Immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) is the most common form of glomerulonephritis, and a substantial number of patients succumb to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). However, prediction of the renal outcome in individual patients remains difficult. We have already published a scoring system using the data in a prospective cohort of IgAN patients followed up from 1995 to 2002.

Methods: The cohort was further followed up until 2005 in 97 clinical units in Japan. The data from 2283 patients were analysed by Cox regression to determine the predictors of ESRD in IgAN, and their beta-coefficients were converted into scores to estimate ESRD risk within 10 years.

Results: During the follow-up (median, 87 months), 252 patients developed ESRD. Male sex, age less than 30 years, family histories of chronic renal failure and chronic glomerulonephritis, hypertension, proteinuria, mild haematuria, hypoalbuminaemia, low glomerular filtration rate and a high histological grade at initial renal biopsy were associated with the risk of ESRD in the multivariable analysis. A scoring system was framed to estimate the 10-year ESRD risk using eight variables significant in both univariable and multivariable models. This prognostic score accurately classified patients by risk: patients with estimates of 0-4.9, 5.0-19.9, 20.0-49.9 and 50.0-100% had an observed incidence of 1.7, 8.3, 36.7 and 85.5%, respectively. The corresponding area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.942 (95% confidence interval, 0.925-0.958).

Conclusion: This validated scoring system to quantitatively estimate ESRD risk during the 10-year follow-up of IgAN patients will serve as a useful prognostic tool in clinical practice.

Show MeSH

Related in: MedlinePlus

Renal survival curves by estimated 10-year risk of end-stage renal disease. Patients were categorized into four groups according to the estimated risk: low (0–4.9%, n = 1007), moderate (5.0–19.9%, n = 365), high (20.0–49.9%, n = 154) and very high (50.0–100%, n = 135). Numbers of patients at risk were 1661, 1430, 1216, 1005, 706 and 537 at 0, 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10 years, respectively.
© Copyright Policy - creative-commons
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License 1 - License 2
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC2747499&req=5

Figure 1: Renal survival curves by estimated 10-year risk of end-stage renal disease. Patients were categorized into four groups according to the estimated risk: low (0–4.9%, n = 1007), moderate (5.0–19.9%, n = 365), high (20.0–49.9%, n = 154) and very high (50.0–100%, n = 135). Numbers of patients at risk were 1661, 1430, 1216, 1005, 706 and 537 at 0, 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10 years, respectively.

Mentions: The renal survival curves according to the estimated 10-year risk are shown in Figure 1. The prognostic score successfully classified the patients by risk. Those with an estimated risk of 0–4.9% (score, 0–43), 5.0–19.9% (44–58), 20.0–49.9% (59–70) and 50.0–100% (71 or more) had an actual cumulative incidence of ESRD in 10 years of 1.7% (95% CI, 0.86–3.5), 8.3% (5.4–12.5), 36.7% (28.4–46.5) and 85.5% (78.0–91.5), respectively. This indicated a good agreement between the estimated and observed risks. Furthermore, the area under the ROC curve of this prediction model reached 0.942 (95% CI, 0.925–0.958) (Figure 2).


A scoring system to predict renal outcome in IgA nephropathy: a nationwide 10-year prospective cohort study.

Goto M, Wakai K, Kawamura T, Ando M, Endoh M, Tomino Y - Nephrol. Dial. Transplant. (2009)

Renal survival curves by estimated 10-year risk of end-stage renal disease. Patients were categorized into four groups according to the estimated risk: low (0–4.9%, n = 1007), moderate (5.0–19.9%, n = 365), high (20.0–49.9%, n = 154) and very high (50.0–100%, n = 135). Numbers of patients at risk were 1661, 1430, 1216, 1005, 706 and 537 at 0, 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10 years, respectively.
© Copyright Policy - creative-commons
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License 1 - License 2
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC2747499&req=5

Figure 1: Renal survival curves by estimated 10-year risk of end-stage renal disease. Patients were categorized into four groups according to the estimated risk: low (0–4.9%, n = 1007), moderate (5.0–19.9%, n = 365), high (20.0–49.9%, n = 154) and very high (50.0–100%, n = 135). Numbers of patients at risk were 1661, 1430, 1216, 1005, 706 and 537 at 0, 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10 years, respectively.
Mentions: The renal survival curves according to the estimated 10-year risk are shown in Figure 1. The prognostic score successfully classified the patients by risk. Those with an estimated risk of 0–4.9% (score, 0–43), 5.0–19.9% (44–58), 20.0–49.9% (59–70) and 50.0–100% (71 or more) had an actual cumulative incidence of ESRD in 10 years of 1.7% (95% CI, 0.86–3.5), 8.3% (5.4–12.5), 36.7% (28.4–46.5) and 85.5% (78.0–91.5), respectively. This indicated a good agreement between the estimated and observed risks. Furthermore, the area under the ROC curve of this prediction model reached 0.942 (95% CI, 0.925–0.958) (Figure 2).

Bottom Line: However, prediction of the renal outcome in individual patients remains difficult.This prognostic score accurately classified patients by risk: patients with estimates of 0-4.9, 5.0-19.9, 20.0-49.9 and 50.0-100% had an observed incidence of 1.7, 8.3, 36.7 and 85.5%, respectively.The corresponding area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.942 (95% confidence interval, 0.925-0.958).

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Kyoto University Health Service, Kyoto, Japan. goto@msa.biglobe.ne.jp

ABSTRACT

Background: Immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) is the most common form of glomerulonephritis, and a substantial number of patients succumb to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). However, prediction of the renal outcome in individual patients remains difficult. We have already published a scoring system using the data in a prospective cohort of IgAN patients followed up from 1995 to 2002.

Methods: The cohort was further followed up until 2005 in 97 clinical units in Japan. The data from 2283 patients were analysed by Cox regression to determine the predictors of ESRD in IgAN, and their beta-coefficients were converted into scores to estimate ESRD risk within 10 years.

Results: During the follow-up (median, 87 months), 252 patients developed ESRD. Male sex, age less than 30 years, family histories of chronic renal failure and chronic glomerulonephritis, hypertension, proteinuria, mild haematuria, hypoalbuminaemia, low glomerular filtration rate and a high histological grade at initial renal biopsy were associated with the risk of ESRD in the multivariable analysis. A scoring system was framed to estimate the 10-year ESRD risk using eight variables significant in both univariable and multivariable models. This prognostic score accurately classified patients by risk: patients with estimates of 0-4.9, 5.0-19.9, 20.0-49.9 and 50.0-100% had an observed incidence of 1.7, 8.3, 36.7 and 85.5%, respectively. The corresponding area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.942 (95% confidence interval, 0.925-0.958).

Conclusion: This validated scoring system to quantitatively estimate ESRD risk during the 10-year follow-up of IgAN patients will serve as a useful prognostic tool in clinical practice.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus