Limits...
Hantavirus reservoir Oligoryzomys longicaudatus spatial distribution sensitivity to climate change scenarios in Argentine Patagonia.

Carbajo AE, Vera C, González PL - Int J Health Geogr (2009)

Bottom Line: If temperature and precipitation trends remain at current levels for 60 years or double in the future 30 years, the probability of the rodent presence and the associated total area of potential distribution would diminish throughout Patagonia; the areas of potential distribution for colilargos would shift eastwards.These results suggest that future changes in Patagonia climate may lower transmission risk through a reduction in the potential distribution of the rodent reservoir.According to our model the rates of temperature and precipitation changes observed between 1967 and 1998 may produce significant changes in the rodent distribution in an equivalent period of time only in certain areas.

View Article: PubMed Central - HTML - PubMed

Affiliation: Unidad de Ecología de Reservorios y Vectores de Parásitos, Depto Ecología, Genética y Evolución, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina.

ABSTRACT

Background: Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (colilargo) is the rodent responsible for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in Argentine Patagonia. In past decades (1967-1998), trends of precipitation reduction and surface air temperature increase have been observed in western Patagonia. We explore how the potential distribution of the hantavirus reservoir would change under different climate change scenarios based on the observed trends.

Methods: Four scenarios of potential climate change were constructed using temperature and precipitation changes observed in Argentine Patagonia between 1967 and 1998: Scenario 1 assumed no change in precipitation but a temperature trend as observed; scenario 2 assumed no changes in temperature but a precipitation trend as observed; Scenario 3 included changes in both temperature and precipitation trends as observed; Scenario 4 assumed changes in both temperature and precipitation trends as observed but doubled. We used a validated spatial distribution model of O. longicaudatus as a function of temperature and precipitation. From the model probability of the rodent presence was calculated for each scenario.

Results: If changes in precipitation follow previous trends, the probability of the colilargo presence would fall in the HPS transmission zone of northern Patagonia. If temperature and precipitation trends remain at current levels for 60 years or double in the future 30 years, the probability of the rodent presence and the associated total area of potential distribution would diminish throughout Patagonia; the areas of potential distribution for colilargos would shift eastwards. These results suggest that future changes in Patagonia climate may lower transmission risk through a reduction in the potential distribution of the rodent reservoir.

Conclusion: According to our model the rates of temperature and precipitation changes observed between 1967 and 1998 may produce significant changes in the rodent distribution in an equivalent period of time only in certain areas. Given that changes maintain for 60 years or double in 30 years, the hantavirus reservoir Oligoryzomys longicaudatus may contract its distribution in Argentine Patagonia extensively.

Show MeSH

Related in: MedlinePlus

Temperature and precipitation trends. Change in mean air temperature (a) and cumulated precipitation (b) observed between 1967 and 1998 in Argentine Patagonia. Time series of temperature (annual average of monthly means) and precipitation (annual average of monthly accumulated rainfall) for the locality indicated in the maps by the red triangle (c).
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC2721831&req=5

Figure 2: Temperature and precipitation trends. Change in mean air temperature (a) and cumulated precipitation (b) observed between 1967 and 1998 in Argentine Patagonia. Time series of temperature (annual average of monthly means) and precipitation (annual average of monthly accumulated rainfall) for the locality indicated in the maps by the red triangle (c).

Mentions: The Patagonian region, as other regions of the world, has experienced important climate variations during the last century (Figure 2). In particular, significant positive temperature trends in association with negative precipitation trends have been documented along the southern Andes [25,26]. In addition, recent studies estimate climate change projections over South America for the twenty-first century [27] based on information provided by global climate simulations performed under greenhouse gas increment scenarios for the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [28]. There is a general consensus among global climate models that climate changes projected over the southern Andes for the last part of the twenty-first century will be mainly associated with temperature increases and reductions in precipitation during all seasons. Nevertheless, Vera et al. [29], using an ensemble of 21 global climate model simulations, showed that the quantification of such regional potential climate change in the southern part of South America exhibits a large degree of uncertainty that inhibits its use in impact assessment studies. Therefore, the aim of our work is to evaluate the changes in the probability of the colilargo presence that might take place under four different potential climate change scenarios. In particular, we test the hypothesis that the future distribution of the hantavirus reservoir in Argentine Patagonia will be affected if future climate changes of similar magnitude and sign than those already observed in the twentieth century occur. We also examine the sensitivity of the potential distribution of the rodent to the uncertainties associated with those climate change scenarios.


Hantavirus reservoir Oligoryzomys longicaudatus spatial distribution sensitivity to climate change scenarios in Argentine Patagonia.

Carbajo AE, Vera C, González PL - Int J Health Geogr (2009)

Temperature and precipitation trends. Change in mean air temperature (a) and cumulated precipitation (b) observed between 1967 and 1998 in Argentine Patagonia. Time series of temperature (annual average of monthly means) and precipitation (annual average of monthly accumulated rainfall) for the locality indicated in the maps by the red triangle (c).
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC2721831&req=5

Figure 2: Temperature and precipitation trends. Change in mean air temperature (a) and cumulated precipitation (b) observed between 1967 and 1998 in Argentine Patagonia. Time series of temperature (annual average of monthly means) and precipitation (annual average of monthly accumulated rainfall) for the locality indicated in the maps by the red triangle (c).
Mentions: The Patagonian region, as other regions of the world, has experienced important climate variations during the last century (Figure 2). In particular, significant positive temperature trends in association with negative precipitation trends have been documented along the southern Andes [25,26]. In addition, recent studies estimate climate change projections over South America for the twenty-first century [27] based on information provided by global climate simulations performed under greenhouse gas increment scenarios for the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [28]. There is a general consensus among global climate models that climate changes projected over the southern Andes for the last part of the twenty-first century will be mainly associated with temperature increases and reductions in precipitation during all seasons. Nevertheless, Vera et al. [29], using an ensemble of 21 global climate model simulations, showed that the quantification of such regional potential climate change in the southern part of South America exhibits a large degree of uncertainty that inhibits its use in impact assessment studies. Therefore, the aim of our work is to evaluate the changes in the probability of the colilargo presence that might take place under four different potential climate change scenarios. In particular, we test the hypothesis that the future distribution of the hantavirus reservoir in Argentine Patagonia will be affected if future climate changes of similar magnitude and sign than those already observed in the twentieth century occur. We also examine the sensitivity of the potential distribution of the rodent to the uncertainties associated with those climate change scenarios.

Bottom Line: If temperature and precipitation trends remain at current levels for 60 years or double in the future 30 years, the probability of the rodent presence and the associated total area of potential distribution would diminish throughout Patagonia; the areas of potential distribution for colilargos would shift eastwards.These results suggest that future changes in Patagonia climate may lower transmission risk through a reduction in the potential distribution of the rodent reservoir.According to our model the rates of temperature and precipitation changes observed between 1967 and 1998 may produce significant changes in the rodent distribution in an equivalent period of time only in certain areas.

View Article: PubMed Central - HTML - PubMed

Affiliation: Unidad de Ecología de Reservorios y Vectores de Parásitos, Depto Ecología, Genética y Evolución, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina.

ABSTRACT

Background: Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (colilargo) is the rodent responsible for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in Argentine Patagonia. In past decades (1967-1998), trends of precipitation reduction and surface air temperature increase have been observed in western Patagonia. We explore how the potential distribution of the hantavirus reservoir would change under different climate change scenarios based on the observed trends.

Methods: Four scenarios of potential climate change were constructed using temperature and precipitation changes observed in Argentine Patagonia between 1967 and 1998: Scenario 1 assumed no change in precipitation but a temperature trend as observed; scenario 2 assumed no changes in temperature but a precipitation trend as observed; Scenario 3 included changes in both temperature and precipitation trends as observed; Scenario 4 assumed changes in both temperature and precipitation trends as observed but doubled. We used a validated spatial distribution model of O. longicaudatus as a function of temperature and precipitation. From the model probability of the rodent presence was calculated for each scenario.

Results: If changes in precipitation follow previous trends, the probability of the colilargo presence would fall in the HPS transmission zone of northern Patagonia. If temperature and precipitation trends remain at current levels for 60 years or double in the future 30 years, the probability of the rodent presence and the associated total area of potential distribution would diminish throughout Patagonia; the areas of potential distribution for colilargos would shift eastwards. These results suggest that future changes in Patagonia climate may lower transmission risk through a reduction in the potential distribution of the rodent reservoir.

Conclusion: According to our model the rates of temperature and precipitation changes observed between 1967 and 1998 may produce significant changes in the rodent distribution in an equivalent period of time only in certain areas. Given that changes maintain for 60 years or double in 30 years, the hantavirus reservoir Oligoryzomys longicaudatus may contract its distribution in Argentine Patagonia extensively.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus