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How can accelerated development of bioenergy contribute to the future UK energy mix? Insights from a MARKAL modelling exercise.

Clarke D, Jablonski S, Moran B, Anandarajah G, Taylor G - Biotechnol Biofuels (2009)

Bottom Line: The results of the 'accelerated runs' were compared with a low-carbon (LC-Core) scenario, which assesses the cheapest way to decarbonise the energy sector.Although lignocellulosic ethanol increased, overall ethanol decreased in the transport sector in the bioenergy accelerated technological development scenario due to a reduction in ethanol produced from wheat.All bioenergy technologies should become increasingly more economically competitive with fossil-based technologies as feedstock costs and flexibility are reduced in line with technological advances.

View Article: PubMed Central - HTML - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Biological Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.

ABSTRACT

Background: This work explores the potential contribution of bioenergy technologies to 60% and 80% carbon reductions in the UK energy system by 2050, by outlining the potential for accelerated technological development of bioenergy chains. The investigation was based on insights from MARKAL modelling, detailed literature reviews and expert consultations. Due to the number and complexity of bioenergy pathways and technologies in the model, three chains and two underpinning technologies were selected for detailed investigation: (1) lignocellulosic hydrolysis for the production of bioethanol, (2) gasification technologies for heat and power, (3) fast pyrolysis of biomass for bio-oil production, (4) biotechnological advances for second generation bioenergy crops, and (5) the development of agro-machinery for growing and harvesting bioenergy crops. Detailed literature searches and expert consultations (looking inter alia at research and development needs and economic projections) led to the development of an 'accelerated' dataset of modelling parameters for each of the selected bioenergy pathways, which were included in five different scenario runs with UK-MARKAL (MED). The results of the 'accelerated runs' were compared with a low-carbon (LC-Core) scenario, which assesses the cheapest way to decarbonise the energy sector.

Results: Bioenergy was deployed in larger quantities in the bioenergy accelerated technological development scenario compared with the LC-Core scenario. In the electricity sector, solid biomass was highly utilised for energy crop gasification, displacing some deployment of wind power, and nuclear and marine to a lesser extent. Solid biomass was also deployed for heat in the residential sector from 2040 in much higher quantities in the bioenergy accelerated technological development scenario compared with LC-Core. Although lignocellulosic ethanol increased, overall ethanol decreased in the transport sector in the bioenergy accelerated technological development scenario due to a reduction in ethanol produced from wheat.

Conclusion: There is much potential for future deployment of bioenergy technologies to decarbonise the energy sector. However, future deployment is dependent on many different factors including investment and efforts towards research and development needs, carbon reduction targets and the ability to compete with other low carbon technologies as they become deployed. All bioenergy technologies should become increasingly more economically competitive with fossil-based technologies as feedstock costs and flexibility are reduced in line with technological advances.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Energy crop production. LC-Core (blue) and the accelerated technology development (ATD) Bioenergy scenario (green).
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Figure 3: Energy crop production. LC-Core (blue) and the accelerated technology development (ATD) Bioenergy scenario (green).

Mentions: The increased uptake of bioenergy in the ATD scenario appears to be due to the availability of cheaper resources (energy crops). Although energy crops are utilised in both scenarios in 2010, there is a much larger uptake of bioenergy crops across all vintages in the ATD scenario from 2010 to 2050 (Figure 3). The land available for energy crop production is not fully utilized in the LC-Core scenario and produces a maximum of 113 PJ of domestic energy crops. The production of energy crops in the ATD scenario, however, reaches a physical constraint when all available domestic land for energy crop production is utilized in 2030 (at 415 PJ). Energy crops continue to increase in terms of PJ, after 2030 in the ATD scenario due to the accelerated assumption of increasing yields. This allows for increased energy from energy crops on the same amount of land. Accordingly, in 2050, there are 679 PJ of energy crops in the ATD scenario (compared with 113 PJ in LC-Core).


How can accelerated development of bioenergy contribute to the future UK energy mix? Insights from a MARKAL modelling exercise.

Clarke D, Jablonski S, Moran B, Anandarajah G, Taylor G - Biotechnol Biofuels (2009)

Energy crop production. LC-Core (blue) and the accelerated technology development (ATD) Bioenergy scenario (green).
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC2713217&req=5

Figure 3: Energy crop production. LC-Core (blue) and the accelerated technology development (ATD) Bioenergy scenario (green).
Mentions: The increased uptake of bioenergy in the ATD scenario appears to be due to the availability of cheaper resources (energy crops). Although energy crops are utilised in both scenarios in 2010, there is a much larger uptake of bioenergy crops across all vintages in the ATD scenario from 2010 to 2050 (Figure 3). The land available for energy crop production is not fully utilized in the LC-Core scenario and produces a maximum of 113 PJ of domestic energy crops. The production of energy crops in the ATD scenario, however, reaches a physical constraint when all available domestic land for energy crop production is utilized in 2030 (at 415 PJ). Energy crops continue to increase in terms of PJ, after 2030 in the ATD scenario due to the accelerated assumption of increasing yields. This allows for increased energy from energy crops on the same amount of land. Accordingly, in 2050, there are 679 PJ of energy crops in the ATD scenario (compared with 113 PJ in LC-Core).

Bottom Line: The results of the 'accelerated runs' were compared with a low-carbon (LC-Core) scenario, which assesses the cheapest way to decarbonise the energy sector.Although lignocellulosic ethanol increased, overall ethanol decreased in the transport sector in the bioenergy accelerated technological development scenario due to a reduction in ethanol produced from wheat.All bioenergy technologies should become increasingly more economically competitive with fossil-based technologies as feedstock costs and flexibility are reduced in line with technological advances.

View Article: PubMed Central - HTML - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Biological Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.

ABSTRACT

Background: This work explores the potential contribution of bioenergy technologies to 60% and 80% carbon reductions in the UK energy system by 2050, by outlining the potential for accelerated technological development of bioenergy chains. The investigation was based on insights from MARKAL modelling, detailed literature reviews and expert consultations. Due to the number and complexity of bioenergy pathways and technologies in the model, three chains and two underpinning technologies were selected for detailed investigation: (1) lignocellulosic hydrolysis for the production of bioethanol, (2) gasification technologies for heat and power, (3) fast pyrolysis of biomass for bio-oil production, (4) biotechnological advances for second generation bioenergy crops, and (5) the development of agro-machinery for growing and harvesting bioenergy crops. Detailed literature searches and expert consultations (looking inter alia at research and development needs and economic projections) led to the development of an 'accelerated' dataset of modelling parameters for each of the selected bioenergy pathways, which were included in five different scenario runs with UK-MARKAL (MED). The results of the 'accelerated runs' were compared with a low-carbon (LC-Core) scenario, which assesses the cheapest way to decarbonise the energy sector.

Results: Bioenergy was deployed in larger quantities in the bioenergy accelerated technological development scenario compared with the LC-Core scenario. In the electricity sector, solid biomass was highly utilised for energy crop gasification, displacing some deployment of wind power, and nuclear and marine to a lesser extent. Solid biomass was also deployed for heat in the residential sector from 2040 in much higher quantities in the bioenergy accelerated technological development scenario compared with LC-Core. Although lignocellulosic ethanol increased, overall ethanol decreased in the transport sector in the bioenergy accelerated technological development scenario due to a reduction in ethanol produced from wheat.

Conclusion: There is much potential for future deployment of bioenergy technologies to decarbonise the energy sector. However, future deployment is dependent on many different factors including investment and efforts towards research and development needs, carbon reduction targets and the ability to compete with other low carbon technologies as they become deployed. All bioenergy technologies should become increasingly more economically competitive with fossil-based technologies as feedstock costs and flexibility are reduced in line with technological advances.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus