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Estimating community incidence of Salmonella, Campylobacter, and Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli infections, Australia.

Hall G, Yohannes K, Raupach J, Becker N, Kirk M - Emerging Infect. Dis. (2008)

Bottom Line: Pathogens were classified by the same severity criteria and appropriate multipliers applied.Precision of estimates was quantified by using simulation techniques to construct 95% credible intervals (CrIs).Australian annual community incidence rates per 100,000 population were estimated as 262 (95% CrI 150-624), 1,184 (95% CrI 756-2,670), and 23 (95% CrI 13-54), respectively.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Australian National University, Acton, Australian Capital Territory, Australia. gillian.hall@anu.edu.au

ABSTRACT
To estimate multipliers linking surveillance of salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis, and Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) infections to community incidence, we used data from a gastroenteritis survey and other sources. Multipliers for severe (bloody stool/long duration) and milder cases were estimated from the component probabilities of doctor visit, stool test, sensitivity of laboratory test, and reporting to surveillance system. Pathogens were classified by the same severity criteria and appropriate multipliers applied. Precision of estimates was quantified by using simulation techniques to construct 95% credible intervals (CrIs). The multiplier for salmonellosis was estimated at 7 (95% CrI 4-16), for campylobacteriosis at 10 (95% CrI 7-22), and for STEC at 8 (95% CrI 3-75). Australian annual community incidence rates per 100,000 population were estimated as 262 (95% CrI 150-624), 1,184 (95% CrI 756-2,670), and 23 (95% CrI 13-54), respectively. Estimation of multipliers allows assessment of the true effects of these diseases and better understanding of public health surveillance.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Sequential steps for notification to a surveillance system. The probability of progressing in the sequential steps in the surveillance system is represented by P. GP, general practitioner.
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Figure 1: Sequential steps for notification to a surveillance system. The probability of progressing in the sequential steps in the surveillance system is represented by P. GP, general practitioner.

Mentions: The fraction of community cases reported to surveillance was derived from the probability of a case-patient in the community visiting a doctor, having a stool sample taken, having a positive laboratory test, and having the case reported to surveillance (Figure). At every step a proportion of cases from the previous step are lost, resulting in only a fraction of cases being reported (the notification fraction).


Estimating community incidence of Salmonella, Campylobacter, and Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli infections, Australia.

Hall G, Yohannes K, Raupach J, Becker N, Kirk M - Emerging Infect. Dis. (2008)

Sequential steps for notification to a surveillance system. The probability of progressing in the sequential steps in the surveillance system is represented by P. GP, general practitioner.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC2609882&req=5

Figure 1: Sequential steps for notification to a surveillance system. The probability of progressing in the sequential steps in the surveillance system is represented by P. GP, general practitioner.
Mentions: The fraction of community cases reported to surveillance was derived from the probability of a case-patient in the community visiting a doctor, having a stool sample taken, having a positive laboratory test, and having the case reported to surveillance (Figure). At every step a proportion of cases from the previous step are lost, resulting in only a fraction of cases being reported (the notification fraction).

Bottom Line: Pathogens were classified by the same severity criteria and appropriate multipliers applied.Precision of estimates was quantified by using simulation techniques to construct 95% credible intervals (CrIs).Australian annual community incidence rates per 100,000 population were estimated as 262 (95% CrI 150-624), 1,184 (95% CrI 756-2,670), and 23 (95% CrI 13-54), respectively.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Australian National University, Acton, Australian Capital Territory, Australia. gillian.hall@anu.edu.au

ABSTRACT
To estimate multipliers linking surveillance of salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis, and Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) infections to community incidence, we used data from a gastroenteritis survey and other sources. Multipliers for severe (bloody stool/long duration) and milder cases were estimated from the component probabilities of doctor visit, stool test, sensitivity of laboratory test, and reporting to surveillance system. Pathogens were classified by the same severity criteria and appropriate multipliers applied. Precision of estimates was quantified by using simulation techniques to construct 95% credible intervals (CrIs). The multiplier for salmonellosis was estimated at 7 (95% CrI 4-16), for campylobacteriosis at 10 (95% CrI 7-22), and for STEC at 8 (95% CrI 3-75). Australian annual community incidence rates per 100,000 population were estimated as 262 (95% CrI 150-624), 1,184 (95% CrI 756-2,670), and 23 (95% CrI 13-54), respectively. Estimation of multipliers allows assessment of the true effects of these diseases and better understanding of public health surveillance.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus