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Rescinding community mitigation strategies in an influenza pandemic.

Davey VJ, Glass RJ - Emerging Infect. Dis. (2008)

Bottom Line: An unmitigated epidemic or strategy continuation for the epidemic duration served as control scenarios.If cases recurred, strategies were resumed at a predefined 10-case trigger, and epidemic recurrence was thwarted.Strategies were most effective when used with high compliance and when combined with stringent rescinding thresholds.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Office of Public Health and Environmental Hazards, Department of Veterans Affairs, Veterans Health Administration, 810 Vermont Ave NW, Mailcode 13, Washington, DC 20420, USA. victoria.davey@va.gov

ABSTRACT
Using a networked, agent-based computational model of a stylized community, we evaluated thresholds for rescinding 2 community mitigation strategies after an influenza pandemic. We ended child sequestering or all-community sequestering when illness incidence waned to thresholds of 0, 1, 2, or 3 cases in 7 days in 2 levels of pandemic severity. An unmitigated epidemic or strategy continuation for the epidemic duration served as control scenarios. The 0-case per 7-day rescinding threshold was comparable to the continuation strategy on infection and illness rates but reduced the number of days strategies would be needed by 6% to 32% in mild or severe pandemics. If cases recurred, strategies were resumed at a predefined 10-case trigger, and epidemic recurrence was thwarted. Strategies were most effective when used with high compliance and when combined with stringent rescinding thresholds. The need for strategies implemented for control of an influenza pandemic was reduced, without increasing illness rates.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Infection rates and duration of strategy in severe epidemics by level of compliance for child sequestering and community sequestering, and rescinding threshold (Cont, 0, 1, 2, or 3). Cont, strategy continuation for the duration of the epidemic.
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Figure 4: Infection rates and duration of strategy in severe epidemics by level of compliance for child sequestering and community sequestering, and rescinding threshold (Cont, 0, 1, 2, or 3). Cont, strategy continuation for the duration of the epidemic.

Mentions: Compliance with imposed child sequestering or community sequestering could be <90% because of persons who provide essential community services, other needs for persons to circulate in the community, or fatigue with the strategy. Figures 3 and 4 compare infection rates and strategy time across the rescinding thresholds and levels of compliance.


Rescinding community mitigation strategies in an influenza pandemic.

Davey VJ, Glass RJ - Emerging Infect. Dis. (2008)

Infection rates and duration of strategy in severe epidemics by level of compliance for child sequestering and community sequestering, and rescinding threshold (Cont, 0, 1, 2, or 3). Cont, strategy continuation for the duration of the epidemic.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC2570828&req=5

Figure 4: Infection rates and duration of strategy in severe epidemics by level of compliance for child sequestering and community sequestering, and rescinding threshold (Cont, 0, 1, 2, or 3). Cont, strategy continuation for the duration of the epidemic.
Mentions: Compliance with imposed child sequestering or community sequestering could be <90% because of persons who provide essential community services, other needs for persons to circulate in the community, or fatigue with the strategy. Figures 3 and 4 compare infection rates and strategy time across the rescinding thresholds and levels of compliance.

Bottom Line: An unmitigated epidemic or strategy continuation for the epidemic duration served as control scenarios.If cases recurred, strategies were resumed at a predefined 10-case trigger, and epidemic recurrence was thwarted.Strategies were most effective when used with high compliance and when combined with stringent rescinding thresholds.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Office of Public Health and Environmental Hazards, Department of Veterans Affairs, Veterans Health Administration, 810 Vermont Ave NW, Mailcode 13, Washington, DC 20420, USA. victoria.davey@va.gov

ABSTRACT
Using a networked, agent-based computational model of a stylized community, we evaluated thresholds for rescinding 2 community mitigation strategies after an influenza pandemic. We ended child sequestering or all-community sequestering when illness incidence waned to thresholds of 0, 1, 2, or 3 cases in 7 days in 2 levels of pandemic severity. An unmitigated epidemic or strategy continuation for the epidemic duration served as control scenarios. The 0-case per 7-day rescinding threshold was comparable to the continuation strategy on infection and illness rates but reduced the number of days strategies would be needed by 6% to 32% in mild or severe pandemics. If cases recurred, strategies were resumed at a predefined 10-case trigger, and epidemic recurrence was thwarted. Strategies were most effective when used with high compliance and when combined with stringent rescinding thresholds. The need for strategies implemented for control of an influenza pandemic was reduced, without increasing illness rates.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus