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Increased mortality rate associated with chikungunya epidemic, Ahmedabad, India.

Mavalankar D, Shastri P, Bandyopadhyay T, Parmar J, Ramani KV - Emerging Infect. Dis. (2008)

Bottom Line: To assess the effect of this epidemic, mortality rates in 2006 were compared with those in 2002-2005 for Ahmedabad (population 3.8 million).These excess deaths may be attributable to this epidemic.However, a hidden or unexplained cause of death is also possible.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India. dileep@iimahd.ernet.in

ABSTRACT
In 2005-2006, Réunion Island in the Indian Ocean reported approximately 266,000 cases of chikungunya; 254 were fatal (case-fatality rate 1/1,000). India reported 1.39 million cases of chikungunya fever in 2006 with no attributable deaths; Ahmedabad, India, reported 60,777 suspected chikungunya cases. To assess the effect of this epidemic, mortality rates in 2006 were compared with those in 2002-2005 for Ahmedabad (population 3.8 million). A total of 2,944 excess deaths occurred during the chikungunya epidemic (August-November 2006) when compared with the average number of deaths in the same months during the previous 4 years. These excess deaths may be attributable to this epidemic. However, a hidden or unexplained cause of death is also possible. Public health authorities should thoroughly investigate this increase in deaths associated with this epidemic and implement measures to prevent further epidemics of chikungunya.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Monthly chikungunya cases, expected deaths, and reported deaths, Ahmedabad, India, 2006. Error bars show 99% confidence intervals. Jul–Dec, differences were statistically significant.
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Figure 1: Monthly chikungunya cases, expected deaths, and reported deaths, Ahmedabad, India, 2006. Error bars show 99% confidence intervals. Jul–Dec, differences were statistically significant.

Mentions: A monthly distribution of cases of chikungunya, actual and expected number of deaths in 2006, and monthly average mortality rates for 2002–2005 and 2006 per 10,000 persons are shown in the Table. The number of deaths and mortality rates increased substantially from August through November 2006 compared with values for 2002–2005 for the same months. Mortality rates for August, September, and October 2006 increased 22%, 57%, and 33%, respectively, compared with average mortality rates for these months for 2002–2005. The highest numbers of chikungunya cases were also reported during these months. A total of 31,496 deaths were registered in 2006 compared with 28,440 (99% CI 27,500–29,380) expected deaths for the same year based on average number of deaths for the last 4 years. There were ≈3,056 additional deaths registered in Ahmedabad in 2006 compared with the expected number of deaths for 2006. A comparison of the monthly distribution of actual deaths in 2006 with expected deaths showed a rapid increase in deaths registered from August through November 2006. In these 5 months, 2,944 additional deaths (96.34% of total additional deaths for 2006) occurred when compared with the expected number of deaths for the same months for the previous 4 years. Excess number of deaths peaked in September 2006, when 1,448 additional deaths (47.38% of total additional deaths for 2006) occurred when compared with the expected deaths for September (Figure).


Increased mortality rate associated with chikungunya epidemic, Ahmedabad, India.

Mavalankar D, Shastri P, Bandyopadhyay T, Parmar J, Ramani KV - Emerging Infect. Dis. (2008)

Monthly chikungunya cases, expected deaths, and reported deaths, Ahmedabad, India, 2006. Error bars show 99% confidence intervals. Jul–Dec, differences were statistically significant.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC2570824&req=5

Figure 1: Monthly chikungunya cases, expected deaths, and reported deaths, Ahmedabad, India, 2006. Error bars show 99% confidence intervals. Jul–Dec, differences were statistically significant.
Mentions: A monthly distribution of cases of chikungunya, actual and expected number of deaths in 2006, and monthly average mortality rates for 2002–2005 and 2006 per 10,000 persons are shown in the Table. The number of deaths and mortality rates increased substantially from August through November 2006 compared with values for 2002–2005 for the same months. Mortality rates for August, September, and October 2006 increased 22%, 57%, and 33%, respectively, compared with average mortality rates for these months for 2002–2005. The highest numbers of chikungunya cases were also reported during these months. A total of 31,496 deaths were registered in 2006 compared with 28,440 (99% CI 27,500–29,380) expected deaths for the same year based on average number of deaths for the last 4 years. There were ≈3,056 additional deaths registered in Ahmedabad in 2006 compared with the expected number of deaths for 2006. A comparison of the monthly distribution of actual deaths in 2006 with expected deaths showed a rapid increase in deaths registered from August through November 2006. In these 5 months, 2,944 additional deaths (96.34% of total additional deaths for 2006) occurred when compared with the expected number of deaths for the same months for the previous 4 years. Excess number of deaths peaked in September 2006, when 1,448 additional deaths (47.38% of total additional deaths for 2006) occurred when compared with the expected deaths for September (Figure).

Bottom Line: To assess the effect of this epidemic, mortality rates in 2006 were compared with those in 2002-2005 for Ahmedabad (population 3.8 million).These excess deaths may be attributable to this epidemic.However, a hidden or unexplained cause of death is also possible.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India. dileep@iimahd.ernet.in

ABSTRACT
In 2005-2006, Réunion Island in the Indian Ocean reported approximately 266,000 cases of chikungunya; 254 were fatal (case-fatality rate 1/1,000). India reported 1.39 million cases of chikungunya fever in 2006 with no attributable deaths; Ahmedabad, India, reported 60,777 suspected chikungunya cases. To assess the effect of this epidemic, mortality rates in 2006 were compared with those in 2002-2005 for Ahmedabad (population 3.8 million). A total of 2,944 excess deaths occurred during the chikungunya epidemic (August-November 2006) when compared with the average number of deaths in the same months during the previous 4 years. These excess deaths may be attributable to this epidemic. However, a hidden or unexplained cause of death is also possible. Public health authorities should thoroughly investigate this increase in deaths associated with this epidemic and implement measures to prevent further epidemics of chikungunya.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus