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Smallpox models as policy tools.

McKenzie FE - Emerging Infect. Dis. (2004)

Bottom Line: Mathematical models can help prepare for and respond to bioterrorism attacks, provided that their strengths and weaknesses are clearly understood.A series of initiatives within the Department of Health and Human Services brought modelers together with biologists and epidemiologists who specialize in smallpox and experts in bioterrorism response and health policy and has led to the parallel development of models with different technical approaches but standardized scenarios, parameter ranges, and outcome measures.Cross-disciplinary interactions throughout the process supported the development of models focused on systematically comparing alternate intervention strategies, determining the most important issues in decision-making, and identifying gaps in current knowledge.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland 20892, USA. mckenzel@mail.nih.gov

ABSTRACT
Mathematical models can help prepare for and respond to bioterrorism attacks, provided that their strengths and weaknesses are clearly understood. A series of initiatives within the Department of Health and Human Services brought modelers together with biologists and epidemiologists who specialize in smallpox and experts in bioterrorism response and health policy and has led to the parallel development of models with different technical approaches but standardized scenarios, parameter ranges, and outcome measures. Cross-disciplinary interactions throughout the process supported the development of models focused on systematically comparing alternate intervention strategies, determining the most important issues in decision-making, and identifying gaps in current knowledge.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Output from two hypothetical models.
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Figure 1: Output from two hypothetical models.

Mentions: For example, the Figure shows output from two hypothetical models. The horizontal axis gives the fraction of a population covered by some intervention, e.g., a vaccine, and the vertical axis shows the resulting percentage reduction in death rate. At 0% coverage, the number of deaths does not change. Approaching 100% coverage, deaths are reduced nearly 100%. Both models agree that fewer deaths occur when more people are covered, but obvious differences also exist between the model results. According to model A, slightly less than 30% coverage would reduce deaths by half; according to model B, almost 70% coverage is needed to reduce deaths by the same amount.


Smallpox models as policy tools.

McKenzie FE - Emerging Infect. Dis. (2004)

Output from two hypothetical models.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC2483404&req=5

Figure 1: Output from two hypothetical models.
Mentions: For example, the Figure shows output from two hypothetical models. The horizontal axis gives the fraction of a population covered by some intervention, e.g., a vaccine, and the vertical axis shows the resulting percentage reduction in death rate. At 0% coverage, the number of deaths does not change. Approaching 100% coverage, deaths are reduced nearly 100%. Both models agree that fewer deaths occur when more people are covered, but obvious differences also exist between the model results. According to model A, slightly less than 30% coverage would reduce deaths by half; according to model B, almost 70% coverage is needed to reduce deaths by the same amount.

Bottom Line: Mathematical models can help prepare for and respond to bioterrorism attacks, provided that their strengths and weaknesses are clearly understood.A series of initiatives within the Department of Health and Human Services brought modelers together with biologists and epidemiologists who specialize in smallpox and experts in bioterrorism response and health policy and has led to the parallel development of models with different technical approaches but standardized scenarios, parameter ranges, and outcome measures.Cross-disciplinary interactions throughout the process supported the development of models focused on systematically comparing alternate intervention strategies, determining the most important issues in decision-making, and identifying gaps in current knowledge.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland 20892, USA. mckenzel@mail.nih.gov

ABSTRACT
Mathematical models can help prepare for and respond to bioterrorism attacks, provided that their strengths and weaknesses are clearly understood. A series of initiatives within the Department of Health and Human Services brought modelers together with biologists and epidemiologists who specialize in smallpox and experts in bioterrorism response and health policy and has led to the parallel development of models with different technical approaches but standardized scenarios, parameter ranges, and outcome measures. Cross-disciplinary interactions throughout the process supported the development of models focused on systematically comparing alternate intervention strategies, determining the most important issues in decision-making, and identifying gaps in current knowledge.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus