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Climate change and the future of California's endemic flora.

Loarie SR, Carter BE, Hayhoe K, McMahon S, Moe R, Knight CA, Ackerly DD - PLoS ONE (2008)

Bottom Line: These results are comparable with other studies of fewer species or just samples of a region's endemics.Projected reductions depend on the magnitude of future emissions and on the ability of species to disperse from their current locations.However, our projections also identify regions where species undergoing severe range reductions may persist.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Nicholas School of the Environment & Earth Sciences, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, United States of America. scott.loarie@duke.edu

ABSTRACT
The flora of California, a global biodiversity hotspot, includes 2387 endemic plant taxa. With anticipated climate change, we project that up to 66% will experience >80% reductions in range size within a century. These results are comparable with other studies of fewer species or just samples of a region's endemics. Projected reductions depend on the magnitude of future emissions and on the ability of species to disperse from their current locations. California's varied terrain could cause species to move in very different directions, breaking up present-day floras. However, our projections also identify regions where species undergoing severe range reductions may persist. Protecting these potential future refugia and facilitating species dispersal will be essential to maintain biodiversity in the face of climate change.

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(A) Present diversity from range maps for all California Floristic Province endemic species (2387).(B) Projected present diversity from the Multi-level Generalized Linear Model for all species with >2 specimens (2068). (C–J) Projected diversity 80 years from now modeled with increasingly increasing amounts of future climate change: (C–F) Plants cannot disperse. (G–J) Plants can disperse to all suitable areas. (C, F, G, H) Simulations based on the lower sensitivity PCM model. (E, F, I, J) Simulations based on the higher-sensitivity HadCM3 model. (C, E, G, I) Lower emissions scenario (B1). (D, F, H, J) Higher emissions scenario (A1FI).
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pone-0002502-g002: (A) Present diversity from range maps for all California Floristic Province endemic species (2387).(B) Projected present diversity from the Multi-level Generalized Linear Model for all species with >2 specimens (2068). (C–J) Projected diversity 80 years from now modeled with increasingly increasing amounts of future climate change: (C–F) Plants cannot disperse. (G–J) Plants can disperse to all suitable areas. (C, F, G, H) Simulations based on the lower sensitivity PCM model. (E, F, I, J) Simulations based on the higher-sensitivity HadCM3 model. (C, E, G, I) Lower emissions scenario (B1). (D, F, H, J) Higher emissions scenario (A1FI).

Mentions: The number specimens and range size derived from the TJM1 range maps were positively correlated (ρ = 0.49). Summed range maps for all 2387 endemic species indicate that species richness peaks at 621 species (Fig. 2A).


Climate change and the future of California's endemic flora.

Loarie SR, Carter BE, Hayhoe K, McMahon S, Moe R, Knight CA, Ackerly DD - PLoS ONE (2008)

(A) Present diversity from range maps for all California Floristic Province endemic species (2387).(B) Projected present diversity from the Multi-level Generalized Linear Model for all species with >2 specimens (2068). (C–J) Projected diversity 80 years from now modeled with increasingly increasing amounts of future climate change: (C–F) Plants cannot disperse. (G–J) Plants can disperse to all suitable areas. (C, F, G, H) Simulations based on the lower sensitivity PCM model. (E, F, I, J) Simulations based on the higher-sensitivity HadCM3 model. (C, E, G, I) Lower emissions scenario (B1). (D, F, H, J) Higher emissions scenario (A1FI).
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC2481286&req=5

pone-0002502-g002: (A) Present diversity from range maps for all California Floristic Province endemic species (2387).(B) Projected present diversity from the Multi-level Generalized Linear Model for all species with >2 specimens (2068). (C–J) Projected diversity 80 years from now modeled with increasingly increasing amounts of future climate change: (C–F) Plants cannot disperse. (G–J) Plants can disperse to all suitable areas. (C, F, G, H) Simulations based on the lower sensitivity PCM model. (E, F, I, J) Simulations based on the higher-sensitivity HadCM3 model. (C, E, G, I) Lower emissions scenario (B1). (D, F, H, J) Higher emissions scenario (A1FI).
Mentions: The number specimens and range size derived from the TJM1 range maps were positively correlated (ρ = 0.49). Summed range maps for all 2387 endemic species indicate that species richness peaks at 621 species (Fig. 2A).

Bottom Line: These results are comparable with other studies of fewer species or just samples of a region's endemics.Projected reductions depend on the magnitude of future emissions and on the ability of species to disperse from their current locations.However, our projections also identify regions where species undergoing severe range reductions may persist.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Nicholas School of the Environment & Earth Sciences, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, United States of America. scott.loarie@duke.edu

ABSTRACT
The flora of California, a global biodiversity hotspot, includes 2387 endemic plant taxa. With anticipated climate change, we project that up to 66% will experience >80% reductions in range size within a century. These results are comparable with other studies of fewer species or just samples of a region's endemics. Projected reductions depend on the magnitude of future emissions and on the ability of species to disperse from their current locations. California's varied terrain could cause species to move in very different directions, breaking up present-day floras. However, our projections also identify regions where species undergoing severe range reductions may persist. Protecting these potential future refugia and facilitating species dispersal will be essential to maintain biodiversity in the face of climate change.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus