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Patterns of coronary heart disease mortality over the 20th century in England and Wales: Possible plateaus in the rate of decline.

Allender S, Scarborough P, O'Flaherty M, Capewell S - BMC Public Health (2008)

Bottom Line: Recent work suggests that the rate of change in some groups has begun to decrease and may be starting to plateau or even reverse.Among younger men the rate of change in CHD mortality has been consistent for the past 15 years indicating that rates in this group have continued to fall steadily.The rate of improvement in CHD mortality appears to be beginning to decline and may even be reversing among younger women.

View Article: PubMed Central - HTML - PubMed

Affiliation: Division of Public Health and Primary Health Care, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. steven.allender@dphpc.ox.ac.uk

ABSTRACT

Background: Coronary heart disease (CHD) rates in England and Wales between 1950 and 2005 were high and reasonably steady until the mid 1970s, when they began to fall. Recent work suggests that the rate of change in some groups has begun to decrease and may be starting to plateau or even reverse.

Methods: Data for all deaths between 1931 and 2005 in England and Wales were grouped by year, sex, age at death and contemporaneous ICD code for CHD as cause of death. CHD mortality rates by calendar year and birth cohort were produced for both sexes and rates of change were examined.

Results: The pattern of increased burden of CHD mortality within older age groups has only recently emerged in men, whereas it has been established in women for far longer. CHD mortality rates among younger people showed little variation by birth cohort. For younger women (49 and under), the rate of change in CHD mortality has reversed in the last 20 years, indicating a future plateau and possible reversal of previous improvement in CHD mortality rates. Among younger men the rate of change in CHD mortality has been consistent for the past 15 years indicating that rates in this group have continued to fall steadily.

Conclusion: Although CHD mortality rates continue to drop in older age groups the actual burden of coronary heart disease is increasing due to the ageing of the population. The rate of improvement in CHD mortality appears to be beginning to decline and may even be reversing among younger women.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Crude CHD death rates and mortality rate per 100,000, by age group (45 and older), men and women, 1931 to 2005.
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Figure 1: Crude CHD death rates and mortality rate per 100,000, by age group (45 and older), men and women, 1931 to 2005.

Mentions: Age-stratified CHD mortality rates for men and women by calendar year are shown in Figure 1. They show a consistent pattern, both within age groups and gender, of a sharp increase until the mid 1970s, and then a steady decline. A sharp rise in the CHD mortality rate for both men and women is evident in 1967, the first year of the ICD-7 revision.


Patterns of coronary heart disease mortality over the 20th century in England and Wales: Possible plateaus in the rate of decline.

Allender S, Scarborough P, O'Flaherty M, Capewell S - BMC Public Health (2008)

Crude CHD death rates and mortality rate per 100,000, by age group (45 and older), men and women, 1931 to 2005.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC2386471&req=5

Figure 1: Crude CHD death rates and mortality rate per 100,000, by age group (45 and older), men and women, 1931 to 2005.
Mentions: Age-stratified CHD mortality rates for men and women by calendar year are shown in Figure 1. They show a consistent pattern, both within age groups and gender, of a sharp increase until the mid 1970s, and then a steady decline. A sharp rise in the CHD mortality rate for both men and women is evident in 1967, the first year of the ICD-7 revision.

Bottom Line: Recent work suggests that the rate of change in some groups has begun to decrease and may be starting to plateau or even reverse.Among younger men the rate of change in CHD mortality has been consistent for the past 15 years indicating that rates in this group have continued to fall steadily.The rate of improvement in CHD mortality appears to be beginning to decline and may even be reversing among younger women.

View Article: PubMed Central - HTML - PubMed

Affiliation: Division of Public Health and Primary Health Care, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. steven.allender@dphpc.ox.ac.uk

ABSTRACT

Background: Coronary heart disease (CHD) rates in England and Wales between 1950 and 2005 were high and reasonably steady until the mid 1970s, when they began to fall. Recent work suggests that the rate of change in some groups has begun to decrease and may be starting to plateau or even reverse.

Methods: Data for all deaths between 1931 and 2005 in England and Wales were grouped by year, sex, age at death and contemporaneous ICD code for CHD as cause of death. CHD mortality rates by calendar year and birth cohort were produced for both sexes and rates of change were examined.

Results: The pattern of increased burden of CHD mortality within older age groups has only recently emerged in men, whereas it has been established in women for far longer. CHD mortality rates among younger people showed little variation by birth cohort. For younger women (49 and under), the rate of change in CHD mortality has reversed in the last 20 years, indicating a future plateau and possible reversal of previous improvement in CHD mortality rates. Among younger men the rate of change in CHD mortality has been consistent for the past 15 years indicating that rates in this group have continued to fall steadily.

Conclusion: Although CHD mortality rates continue to drop in older age groups the actual burden of coronary heart disease is increasing due to the ageing of the population. The rate of improvement in CHD mortality appears to be beginning to decline and may even be reversing among younger women.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus