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Riding the wave: reconciling the roles of disease and climate change in amphibian declines.

Lips KR, Diffendorfer J, Mendelson JR, Sears MW - PLoS Biol. (2008)

Bottom Line: Available data support the hypothesis of multiple introductions of this invasive pathogen into South America and subsequent spread along the primary Andean cordilleras.Additional analyses found no evidence to support the hypothesis that climate change has been driving outbreaks of amphibian chytridiomycosis, as has been posited in the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis.Future studies should increase retrospective surveys of museum specimens from throughout the Andes and should study the landscape genetics of Bd to map fine-scale patterns of geographic spread to identify transmission routes and processes.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Zoology, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, Illinois, United States of America. klips@zoology.siu.edu

ABSTRACT
We review the evidence for the role of climate change in triggering disease outbreaks of chytridiomycosis, an emerging infectious disease of amphibians. Both climatic anomalies and disease-related extirpations are recent phenomena, and effects of both are especially noticeable at high elevations in tropical areas, making it difficult to determine whether they are operating separately or synergistically. We compiled reports of amphibian declines from Lower Central America and Andean South America to create maps and statistical models to test our hypothesis of spatiotemporal spread of the pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), and to update the elevational patterns of decline in frogs belonging to the genus Atelopus. We evaluated claims of climate change influencing the spread of Bd by including error into estimates of the relationship between air temperature and last year observed. Available data support the hypothesis of multiple introductions of this invasive pathogen into South America and subsequent spread along the primary Andean cordilleras. Additional analyses found no evidence to support the hypothesis that climate change has been driving outbreaks of amphibian chytridiomycosis, as has been posited in the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis. Future studies should increase retrospective surveys of museum specimens from throughout the Andes and should study the landscape genetics of Bd to map fine-scale patterns of geographic spread to identify transmission routes and processes.

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The Relationship between Time since the Earliest DOD (a Proxy for the Introduction of Bd) and Distance of Spread of Bd Was Robust to the Addition of Sampling Error(A) When adding error backward in time from a uniform distribution, the relationship in Wave 1 remained statistically significant when random error up to 16 y was applied, in (B) Wave 3a up to 20 (+) y, in (C) Wave 3b up to 18 y, and in (D) Wave 4 up to 20 (+) y was applied.
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pbio-0060072-g006: The Relationship between Time since the Earliest DOD (a Proxy for the Introduction of Bd) and Distance of Spread of Bd Was Robust to the Addition of Sampling Error(A) When adding error backward in time from a uniform distribution, the relationship in Wave 1 remained statistically significant when random error up to 16 y was applied, in (B) Wave 3a up to 20 (+) y, in (C) Wave 3b up to 18 y, and in (D) Wave 4 up to 20 (+) y was applied.

Mentions: Unlike the relationship between AT and LYO, the relationship between time since the earliest DOD and distance of spread of Bd was robust to additional sampling error (Figure 6). When adding error backward in time from a uniform distribution, the relationship in Wave 1 remained statistically significant when random error up to 16 y was applied, in Wave 3a and Wave 4 up to 20 (+) y, and in Wave 3b up to 18 y.


Riding the wave: reconciling the roles of disease and climate change in amphibian declines.

Lips KR, Diffendorfer J, Mendelson JR, Sears MW - PLoS Biol. (2008)

The Relationship between Time since the Earliest DOD (a Proxy for the Introduction of Bd) and Distance of Spread of Bd Was Robust to the Addition of Sampling Error(A) When adding error backward in time from a uniform distribution, the relationship in Wave 1 remained statistically significant when random error up to 16 y was applied, in (B) Wave 3a up to 20 (+) y, in (C) Wave 3b up to 18 y, and in (D) Wave 4 up to 20 (+) y was applied.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC2270328&req=5

pbio-0060072-g006: The Relationship between Time since the Earliest DOD (a Proxy for the Introduction of Bd) and Distance of Spread of Bd Was Robust to the Addition of Sampling Error(A) When adding error backward in time from a uniform distribution, the relationship in Wave 1 remained statistically significant when random error up to 16 y was applied, in (B) Wave 3a up to 20 (+) y, in (C) Wave 3b up to 18 y, and in (D) Wave 4 up to 20 (+) y was applied.
Mentions: Unlike the relationship between AT and LYO, the relationship between time since the earliest DOD and distance of spread of Bd was robust to additional sampling error (Figure 6). When adding error backward in time from a uniform distribution, the relationship in Wave 1 remained statistically significant when random error up to 16 y was applied, in Wave 3a and Wave 4 up to 20 (+) y, and in Wave 3b up to 18 y.

Bottom Line: Available data support the hypothesis of multiple introductions of this invasive pathogen into South America and subsequent spread along the primary Andean cordilleras.Additional analyses found no evidence to support the hypothesis that climate change has been driving outbreaks of amphibian chytridiomycosis, as has been posited in the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis.Future studies should increase retrospective surveys of museum specimens from throughout the Andes and should study the landscape genetics of Bd to map fine-scale patterns of geographic spread to identify transmission routes and processes.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Zoology, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, Illinois, United States of America. klips@zoology.siu.edu

ABSTRACT
We review the evidence for the role of climate change in triggering disease outbreaks of chytridiomycosis, an emerging infectious disease of amphibians. Both climatic anomalies and disease-related extirpations are recent phenomena, and effects of both are especially noticeable at high elevations in tropical areas, making it difficult to determine whether they are operating separately or synergistically. We compiled reports of amphibian declines from Lower Central America and Andean South America to create maps and statistical models to test our hypothesis of spatiotemporal spread of the pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), and to update the elevational patterns of decline in frogs belonging to the genus Atelopus. We evaluated claims of climate change influencing the spread of Bd by including error into estimates of the relationship between air temperature and last year observed. Available data support the hypothesis of multiple introductions of this invasive pathogen into South America and subsequent spread along the primary Andean cordilleras. Additional analyses found no evidence to support the hypothesis that climate change has been driving outbreaks of amphibian chytridiomycosis, as has been posited in the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis. Future studies should increase retrospective surveys of museum specimens from throughout the Andes and should study the landscape genetics of Bd to map fine-scale patterns of geographic spread to identify transmission routes and processes.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus