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Fecundity and longevity of roaming dogs in Jaipur, India.

Reece JF, Chawla SK, Hiby EF, Hiby LR - BMC Vet. Res. (2008)

Bottom Line: The point estimate is 47.5% with a 95% confidence interval from 44% to 51%.Adult annual survival of spayed females was estimated by recapture of 62 spayed females from 2002 to 2006.The point estimate is 0.70 (95% confidence interval from 0.62 to 0.78), corresponding to an expected total lifespan of 3.8 years for a spayed female at one year old.

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Affiliation: Help in Suffering, Maharani Farm, Durgapura, Jaipur 302018 Rajasthan, India. hisvet1@helpinsuffering.org

ABSTRACT

Background: Estimates of demographic parameters, such as age-specific survival and fecundity, age at first pregnancy and litter size, are required for roaming dogs (i.e. dogs that are neither confined nor restricted) to assess the likely effect of proposed methods of population control. Data resulting from individual identification of dogs spayed as part of an Animal Birth Control (ABC) programme in Jaipur, India, are used to derive such parameters for the roaming dog population of that city.

Results: The percentage of females becoming pregnant in any given year was estimated by inspection of over 25,000 females caught for spaying from 1995 to 2006. The point estimate is 47.5% with a 95% confidence interval from 44% to 51%. Adult annual survival of spayed females was estimated by recapture of 62 spayed females from 2002 to 2006. The point estimate is 0.70 (95% confidence interval from 0.62 to 0.78), corresponding to an expected total lifespan of 3.8 years for a spayed female at one year old.

Conclusion: Recording the pregnancy status of dogs collected for spaying and individual marking of dogs released following spaying can provide estimates of some of the demographic parameters essential for predicting the future effectiveness of an ABC programme. Further, we suggest that recording the number and location of spayed and unspayed dogs encountered by the catching teams could be the most effective way to monitor the size and composition of the roaming dog population.

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Graph showing maximum likelihood curve for pregnancy rate estimate. The continuous curve shows the change, with the percentage of females becoming pregnant in any given year, of the likelihood maximised with respect to the mean and standard deviation of whelping date. The dashed line is drawn at 1.92 below the maximum likelihood. Its intersection with the continuous curve provides 95% confidence limits for the estimate of the percentage of females becoming pregnant in any given year by exploiting the asymptotic chi-squared distribution of the likelihood ratio.
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Figure 2: Graph showing maximum likelihood curve for pregnancy rate estimate. The continuous curve shows the change, with the percentage of females becoming pregnant in any given year, of the likelihood maximised with respect to the mean and standard deviation of whelping date. The dashed line is drawn at 1.92 below the maximum likelihood. Its intersection with the continuous curve provides 95% confidence limits for the estimate of the percentage of females becoming pregnant in any given year by exploiting the asymptotic chi-squared distribution of the likelihood ratio.

Mentions: The ML estimate for pregnancy rate (i.e. the percentage of recruited females becoming pregnant in any given year) is 47.5%, with a 95% confidence interval from 44% to 51%. Whelping date was assumed to be normally distributed. The ML estimate for mean whelping date was November 23rd with a standard deviation of 58 days. Figure 1 illustrates the observed month to month variation in the percentage of females collected for sterilisation that were found to be pregnant and the month to month variation in the expected value of that percentage given by the ML estimates. Figure 2 illustrates the variation, with pregnancy rate, of the likelihood maximised with respect to the mean and standard deviation of whelping date only and was used to derive the confidence interval on the pregnancy rate estimate.


Fecundity and longevity of roaming dogs in Jaipur, India.

Reece JF, Chawla SK, Hiby EF, Hiby LR - BMC Vet. Res. (2008)

Graph showing maximum likelihood curve for pregnancy rate estimate. The continuous curve shows the change, with the percentage of females becoming pregnant in any given year, of the likelihood maximised with respect to the mean and standard deviation of whelping date. The dashed line is drawn at 1.92 below the maximum likelihood. Its intersection with the continuous curve provides 95% confidence limits for the estimate of the percentage of females becoming pregnant in any given year by exploiting the asymptotic chi-squared distribution of the likelihood ratio.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC2266723&req=5

Figure 2: Graph showing maximum likelihood curve for pregnancy rate estimate. The continuous curve shows the change, with the percentage of females becoming pregnant in any given year, of the likelihood maximised with respect to the mean and standard deviation of whelping date. The dashed line is drawn at 1.92 below the maximum likelihood. Its intersection with the continuous curve provides 95% confidence limits for the estimate of the percentage of females becoming pregnant in any given year by exploiting the asymptotic chi-squared distribution of the likelihood ratio.
Mentions: The ML estimate for pregnancy rate (i.e. the percentage of recruited females becoming pregnant in any given year) is 47.5%, with a 95% confidence interval from 44% to 51%. Whelping date was assumed to be normally distributed. The ML estimate for mean whelping date was November 23rd with a standard deviation of 58 days. Figure 1 illustrates the observed month to month variation in the percentage of females collected for sterilisation that were found to be pregnant and the month to month variation in the expected value of that percentage given by the ML estimates. Figure 2 illustrates the variation, with pregnancy rate, of the likelihood maximised with respect to the mean and standard deviation of whelping date only and was used to derive the confidence interval on the pregnancy rate estimate.

Bottom Line: The point estimate is 47.5% with a 95% confidence interval from 44% to 51%.Adult annual survival of spayed females was estimated by recapture of 62 spayed females from 2002 to 2006.The point estimate is 0.70 (95% confidence interval from 0.62 to 0.78), corresponding to an expected total lifespan of 3.8 years for a spayed female at one year old.

View Article: PubMed Central - HTML - PubMed

Affiliation: Help in Suffering, Maharani Farm, Durgapura, Jaipur 302018 Rajasthan, India. hisvet1@helpinsuffering.org

ABSTRACT

Background: Estimates of demographic parameters, such as age-specific survival and fecundity, age at first pregnancy and litter size, are required for roaming dogs (i.e. dogs that are neither confined nor restricted) to assess the likely effect of proposed methods of population control. Data resulting from individual identification of dogs spayed as part of an Animal Birth Control (ABC) programme in Jaipur, India, are used to derive such parameters for the roaming dog population of that city.

Results: The percentage of females becoming pregnant in any given year was estimated by inspection of over 25,000 females caught for spaying from 1995 to 2006. The point estimate is 47.5% with a 95% confidence interval from 44% to 51%. Adult annual survival of spayed females was estimated by recapture of 62 spayed females from 2002 to 2006. The point estimate is 0.70 (95% confidence interval from 0.62 to 0.78), corresponding to an expected total lifespan of 3.8 years for a spayed female at one year old.

Conclusion: Recording the pregnancy status of dogs collected for spaying and individual marking of dogs released following spaying can provide estimates of some of the demographic parameters essential for predicting the future effectiveness of an ABC programme. Further, we suggest that recording the number and location of spayed and unspayed dogs encountered by the catching teams could be the most effective way to monitor the size and composition of the roaming dog population.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus